My Projection for DADT Repeal

State	Senators	Yea/Nay/ Unknown	Yea Total	Nay Total
AK	Begich (D) Murkowski (R)	Y U	1	0
AL	Shelby (R) Sessions (R)	N N	0	2
AZ	McCain (R) Kyl (R)	N N	0	2
AR	Lincoln (D) Pryor (D)	Y Y	2	0
CA	Feinstein (D) Boxer (D)	Y Y	2	0
CO	Udall (D) Bennet (D)	Y Y	2	0
CT	Dodd (D) Lieberman (I)	Y Y	2	0
DE	Carper (D) Coons (D)	Y Y	2	0
FL	Nelson (D) LeMieux (R)	Y N	1	1
GA	Chambliss (R) Isakson (R)	N N	0	2
HI	Inouye (D) Akaka (D)	Y Y	2	0
ID	Crapo (R) Risch (R)	N N	0	2
IL	Durbin (D) Kirk (R)*	Y Y	2	0
IN	Lugar (R) Bayh (D)	N Y	1	1
IA	Grassley (R) Harkin (D)	N Y	1	1
KS	Brownback (R) Roberts (R)	N N	0	2
KY	McConnell (R) Bunning (R)	N N	0	2
LA	Landrieu (D) Vitter (R)	Y N	1	1
ME	Snowe (R) Collins (R)*	U Y	1	0
MD	Mikulski (D) Cardin (D)	Y Y	2	0
MA	Kerry (D) Brown (R)	Y U	1	0
MI	Levin (D) Stabenow (D)	Y Y	2	0
MN	Klobuchar (D) Franken (D)	Y Y	2	0
MS	Cochran (R) Wicker (R)	N N	0	2
MO	Bond (R) McCaskill (D)	N Y	1	1
MT	Baucus (D) Tester (D)	Y Y	2	0
NE	Nelson (D) Johanns (R)	Y N	1	1
NV	Reid (D) Ensign (R)	Y N	1	1
NH	Gregg (R) Shaheen (D)	N Y	1	1
NJ	Lautenberg (D) Menendez (D)	Y Y	2	0
NM	Bingaman (D) Udall (D)	Y Y	2	0
NY	Schumer (D) Gillibrand (D)	Y Y	2	0
NC	Burr (R) Hagan (D)	N Y	2	0
ND	Conrad (D) Dorgan (D)	Y Y	2	0
OH	Voinovich (R) Brown (D)	N Y	1	1
OK	Inhofe (R) Coburn (R)	N N	0	2
OR	Wyden (D) Merkley (D)	Y Y	2	0
PA	Specter (D) Casey (D)	Y Y	2	0
RI	Reed (D) Whitehouse (D)	Y Y	2	0
SC	Graham (R) DeMint (R)	N N	0	2
SD	Johnson (D) Thune (R)	Y N	1	1
TN	Alexander (R) Corker (R)	N N	2	0
TX	Hutchison (R) Cornyn (R)	N N	0	2
UT	Hatch (R) Bennett (R)	N N	0	2
VT	Leahy (D) Sanders (I)	Y Y	2	0
VA	Webb (D) Warner (D)	Y Y	2	0
WA	Murray (D) Cantwell (D)	Y Y	2	0
WV	Rockefeller (D) Manchin (D)**	Y N	1	1
WI	Kohl (D) Feingold (D)	Y Y	2	0
WY	Enzi (R) Barrasso (R)	N N	0	2

  Total

Party	Yea	Nay	Unknown
Dem	55	1	0
GOP	2	37	3
Indie	2	0	0
Total	59†	38	3

  *GOP Allies

Kirk IL	When in the House, he consistently voted in favor of gay rights
Collins ME	Collins voted against banning SSM federally in 2006; she also dismantled the arguments against DADT repeal, many of which put forth by her own GOP colleagues

  **Democrats who are likely to vote against repeal

Manchin WV

During the DADT hearings on December 2 and 3, 2010, Manchin expressed his concerns of chaplains leaving the military if the policy was repealed Although Manchin is seen as a moderate, his voting record parallels that of a "Blue Dog"

  †Notes
1. 60 Yea votes are needed to pass the NDAA, which will repeal DADT
2. Unknown projections are assigned Senators who are fence sitters on this issue
3. This vote can only pass with full Democratic support, as well as support from at least two or three Republicans, depending on how Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes
4. Any extra yea votes will likely come from Scott Brown (R-MA) or Olympia Snowe (R-ME); one shouldn't rely too heavily on Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
5. Possible Outcomes:
1. Scenario I:  59-41 Fail; see above
2. Scenario II:  61-39 Adopted; two of three Senators (Brown [MA], Snowe [ME], or Manchin [WV]) voted for repeal
3. Scenario III:  62-38 Adopted; Brown [MA], Snowe [ME], and Manchin [WV] all voted for repeal
4. Scenario IV: 63-37, Adopted;  full support from all "fence-sitters" and from Manchin [WV]
  These projections are my opinions and projections personally and is not based on scientific polling

Senator David Vitter (R-LA) on DADT

I recently contacted both of my state senators on the upcoming vote to repeal DADT in this lame duck session of the 111th Congress.  Here is what Vitter (R-LA) had to say:

Dear Mr. Winfield, Thank you for contacting me in opposition to the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy.  I appreciate hearing from you on this important issue. The "don't ask, don't tell" policy prohibits individuals who are openly homosexual from serving in the military.  Service members may not engage in these activities, and the military is barred from asking a service member about his or her sexual orientation.  This has been official military policy since it was implemented by President Clinton in 1994. As you may know, the proposed Military Readiness Enhancement Act would repeal the Department of Defense's current "don't ask, don't tell" policy, and President Obama has stated that he would sign the bill into law if Congress passes it.  I believe that any actions taken by Congress and the President should be done in the best interest of the military.  The proposed legislation remains controversial, and Congress and the President should listen carefully to military leaders when trying to determine the best course of action on this issue.  Please rest assured I will keep your thoughts in mind should changes to this policy come before the U.S. Senate. Again, thank you for sharing your thoughts on this important issue.  Please do not hesitate to contact me in the future about other issues important to you.

Sincerely, Senator David Vitter United States Senator

Sounds like we can't count on him.  I'm really considering calling him, but I think that may actually be a waste of my time.  If I don't here from Mary Landrieu (D-LA) soon, I'm going to call her.