Congressional Balance of Power

Charts!

My latest charts!

Take away:
1) Mitt Romney is the likely nominee; but not the likely 45th President
2) Rick Santorum is doing surprisingly well in Minnesota
3) Barack Obama is doing very well; riding on the wave of good economical news
4) Mitt Romney continues to dig his own grave with out-of-touch, I'm-better-than-you gaffes
5) This Republican nomination race is long from over

Electability Update for 3-Feb

Awaiting more polling out of the battleground states: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

2012 Presidential Updates

The candidates have stagnated; good for Romney, bad for Newt!

GOPI, CVI, Electability Updates

The Gingrich attack machine seems to be having an effect on Romney nationally, but not in Florida. Unfortunately, the Gingrich attack machine seems to also be effecting the Republican Party brand as Democrats are starting to do much better, including President Obama.

Romney wants this race settled sooner (April) rather than later (Convention) and with very good reason. If this race continues with Newt Gingrich and the other Republican candidates cannibalizing each other, Obama will be unstoppable by November during the election that really counts, the general.

GOPI Update for 27-Jan

Nationally, the candidates seemed to have stagnated, but that's not the case. Florida and Minnesota have exchanged hands; with Romney now likely to win Florida and Gingrich polling very well in Minnesota.

Good news for Obama: His very popular populist speech at the SOTU seems to have resinated with the American people; his favorability has gone up with voters of all backgrounds. He is also doing better against all GOP candidates on a generic ballot and, for the first time since last summer, as good as the Generic GOP candidate.

GOPI Update for 23-Jan

Even with the large gap to close to catch up to Romney, Newt is back; but for this mercurial candidate, how long?

Obama is looking better against Romney; his lead against Gingrich is the same as before.

GOPI, CVI, and Electability Charts Updated!

Takeaways:
1 Huntsman is out and no one seems to notice
2 Romney continues to benefit from the large number of Republicans who realize he is their strongest candidate
3 Santorum may have met his peak
4 Newt Gingrich...

Electability Still In Obama's Favor

Even with his historical back-to-back wins in the first-in-the nation caucus and primary, Mitt Romney, the strongest Republican candidate, is still weaker than President Obama. Remember, Mitt, Republicans may fall in line, Democrats may fall in love, but independents fall in lucidity.

Who's the Most Electable?

That's what I thought!

Introducing the Congressional Voter Index

The Congressional Voter Index:

This index is a measure of the true balance of power on the hill reflected through victories and the mood of the electorate. May 15th may be an outlier, or it is an indicator that the Democrats seemed to have gotten some control in the debt ceiling debate. May fifteenth is also a turning point for the Democrats who were riding on Obama's coat tails after the raid on and killing of Osama bin Laden.

The Democrat's horrible handling of the debt negotiations lead to a massive loss for them during the summer, as well as a loss of the public's trust. However, this was not the end of the Democrats because they had another trick up their sleeves: the American Jobs Act.

Failing to act on a package, any package, that would produce jobs and failing to gain the lead on the messaging, the Republicans began to suffer and never regained their footing. The Democrats continue to control the messaging, but will this trend hold until November 2012?

2012 Map, thus far!

Obama - 286 | Romney - 185 | Toss Up - 67

I Expect Obama to Win in 2012...If the Vote Happened Today

Northeast
Obama - CT, DE, MA, MD, ME (AL, 1, 2), NY, PA, VT
Romney - NH (Yes; I do expect Romney to carry New Hampshire)

The South
Obama - DC, MD
Romney - AL, AR, GA, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, TX, WV
Toss Ups - FL, MO, NC, VA

Midwest
Obama - IA, IL, MI, MN, OH, WI
Romney - IN, KS, ND, NE (AL, 1, 2, 3), SD

The West
Obama - CA, CO, HI, NM, NV, OR, WA
Romney - AK, AZ, ID, MT, UT, WY

That's 286 electoral points for Obama and 185 for Romney if you weren't keeping track.  It's interesting to note that the South is still somewhat sold on Obama.  Obama will carry the state of Maryland and the District of Columbia and all of the toss up states are in the South.

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

My Projections:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 43%

Likely Electoral Points: 236

Rick Perry* (R) [Governor - Texas]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 233

The swing states have been narrowed to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, holding a total of 69 points.  Obama will likely take PA and NH, and Perry will likely take NC and OH, leaving Iowa and Nevada up for grabs.  Obama would have to win both Iowa and Nevada to win the election if this event happens.  The state to watch in this election is Iowa.  We are still to close to call!

Here is a link to my 2012 prediction map:   http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bXx

Feel free to make your predictions and share!

*I predict Rick Perry, the Teavangelical front runner, will likely win the necessary 1212 delegates required to win the Republican nod over establishment front runner, Mitt Romney.

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

Here are my predictions:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

Gallup: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 174

M Romney (R) [Fm. Governor - Massachusetts]

Gallup: 39%

Likely Electoral Points: 181

With the swing states of CO, FL, ME (1)*, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, OH, OR, PA, and VA holding 183 electoral points, this prediction is still too close to call.

*Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all states; I estimate all 5 delegates from Nebraska will lean GOP.  3 Maine delegates will likely lean Democrat, leaving 1 Main delegate as a swing vote.

This has been updated to reflect Mitt Romney's likely win over Rick Perry.  I expect Mitt Romney to take at least three-fifths of the delegates to the Republican National Convention.

No Deal: My Letter to the President

Dear Barack Obama,

No deal, Mister President!  No, I’m not talking about your capitulation on our nation’s solvent social safety net, I’m talking about any deal to trim the deficit whatsoever in conjunction with this debt ceiling vote.  I, and more than likely, the majority of the American people, want to see this debt ceiling vote come to a head with no political bipartisanship affecting its outcome.

The American debt ceiling is not a tool to use as a weapon against the heads of the American people and the economy, nor is it negotiable, raising it to pay our debts and keep the government functioning is constitutionally mandated; you, Mister President and constitutional scholar, should already know this.  If you offer any type of deal, be it good or bad, even from a progressive stand-point, this will open the Pandora’s Box for what can be leveraged with the debt ceiling vote, so offer no deal!

Offer no deal and use your constitutional and executive authority to raise the debt ceiling yourself with the aid of the Treasury Department; our economy is at stake, America is at stake, Americans are at stake, do not throw any of these things or people under the bus with meaningless political theater.  Allowing any deal undermines the authority of the executive and sets a precedent for others who will follow this Congress to use the debt ceiling as leverage against a sitting president.  I and the American people understand the deficit needs to be tamed, however, I must urge you that doing so with the Full, Faith, and Credit of the United States and the economies of other nations which rely on our economy to keep the markets stable and fair with proper competition literally at gun point would be the destruction of any recovery made thus far since the end of the Great Recession.

Sincerely,

A Concerned American Citizen

My Projection for DADT Repeal

State	Senators	Yea/Nay/ Unknown	Yea Total	Nay Total
AK	Begich (D) Murkowski (R)	Y U	1	0
AL	Shelby (R) Sessions (R)	N N	0	2
AZ	McCain (R) Kyl (R)	N N	0	2
AR	Lincoln (D) Pryor (D)	Y Y	2	0
CA	Feinstein (D) Boxer (D)	Y Y	2	0
CO	Udall (D) Bennet (D)	Y Y	2	0
CT	Dodd (D) Lieberman (I)	Y Y	2	0
DE	Carper (D) Coons (D)	Y Y	2	0
FL	Nelson (D) LeMieux (R)	Y N	1	1
GA	Chambliss (R) Isakson (R)	N N	0	2
HI	Inouye (D) Akaka (D)	Y Y	2	0
ID	Crapo (R) Risch (R)	N N	0	2
IL	Durbin (D) Kirk (R)*	Y Y	2	0
IN	Lugar (R) Bayh (D)	N Y	1	1
IA	Grassley (R) Harkin (D)	N Y	1	1
KS	Brownback (R) Roberts (R)	N N	0	2
KY	McConnell (R) Bunning (R)	N N	0	2
LA	Landrieu (D) Vitter (R)	Y N	1	1
ME	Snowe (R) Collins (R)*	U Y	1	0
MD	Mikulski (D) Cardin (D)	Y Y	2	0
MA	Kerry (D) Brown (R)	Y U	1	0
MI	Levin (D) Stabenow (D)	Y Y	2	0
MN	Klobuchar (D) Franken (D)	Y Y	2	0
MS	Cochran (R) Wicker (R)	N N	0	2
MO	Bond (R) McCaskill (D)	N Y	1	1
MT	Baucus (D) Tester (D)	Y Y	2	0
NE	Nelson (D) Johanns (R)	Y N	1	1
NV	Reid (D) Ensign (R)	Y N	1	1
NH	Gregg (R) Shaheen (D)	N Y	1	1
NJ	Lautenberg (D) Menendez (D)	Y Y	2	0
NM	Bingaman (D) Udall (D)	Y Y	2	0
NY	Schumer (D) Gillibrand (D)	Y Y	2	0
NC	Burr (R) Hagan (D)	N Y	2	0
ND	Conrad (D) Dorgan (D)	Y Y	2	0
OH	Voinovich (R) Brown (D)	N Y	1	1
OK	Inhofe (R) Coburn (R)	N N	0	2
OR	Wyden (D) Merkley (D)	Y Y	2	0
PA	Specter (D) Casey (D)	Y Y	2	0
RI	Reed (D) Whitehouse (D)	Y Y	2	0
SC	Graham (R) DeMint (R)	N N	0	2
SD	Johnson (D) Thune (R)	Y N	1	1
TN	Alexander (R) Corker (R)	N N	2	0
TX	Hutchison (R) Cornyn (R)	N N	0	2
UT	Hatch (R) Bennett (R)	N N	0	2
VT	Leahy (D) Sanders (I)	Y Y	2	0
VA	Webb (D) Warner (D)	Y Y	2	0
WA	Murray (D) Cantwell (D)	Y Y	2	0
WV	Rockefeller (D) Manchin (D)**	Y N	1	1
WI	Kohl (D) Feingold (D)	Y Y	2	0
WY	Enzi (R) Barrasso (R)	N N	0	2

  Total

Party	Yea	Nay	Unknown
Dem	55	1	0
GOP	2	37	3
Indie	2	0	0
Total	59†	38	3

  *GOP Allies

Kirk IL	When in the House, he consistently voted in favor of gay rights
Collins ME	Collins voted against banning SSM federally in 2006; she also dismantled the arguments against DADT repeal, many of which put forth by her own GOP colleagues

  **Democrats who are likely to vote against repeal

Manchin WV

During the DADT hearings on December 2 and 3, 2010, Manchin expressed his concerns of chaplains leaving the military if the policy was repealed Although Manchin is seen as a moderate, his voting record parallels that of a "Blue Dog"

  †Notes
1. 60 Yea votes are needed to pass the NDAA, which will repeal DADT
2. Unknown projections are assigned Senators who are fence sitters on this issue
3. This vote can only pass with full Democratic support, as well as support from at least two or three Republicans, depending on how Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes
4. Any extra yea votes will likely come from Scott Brown (R-MA) or Olympia Snowe (R-ME); one shouldn't rely too heavily on Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
5. Possible Outcomes:
1. Scenario I:  59-41 Fail; see above
2. Scenario II:  61-39 Adopted; two of three Senators (Brown [MA], Snowe [ME], or Manchin [WV]) voted for repeal
3. Scenario III:  62-38 Adopted; Brown [MA], Snowe [ME], and Manchin [WV] all voted for repeal
4. Scenario IV: 63-37, Adopted;  full support from all "fence-sitters" and from Manchin [WV]
  These projections are my opinions and projections personally and is not based on scientific polling