Introducing the Congressional Voter Index

The Congressional Voter Index:

This index is a measure of the true balance of power on the hill reflected through victories and the mood of the electorate. May 15th may be an outlier, or it is an indicator that the Democrats seemed to have gotten some control in the debt ceiling debate. May fifteenth is also a turning point for the Democrats who were riding on Obama's coat tails after the raid on and killing of Osama bin Laden.

The Democrat's horrible handling of the debt negotiations lead to a massive loss for them during the summer, as well as a loss of the public's trust. However, this was not the end of the Democrats because they had another trick up their sleeves: the American Jobs Act.

Failing to act on a package, any package, that would produce jobs and failing to gain the lead on the messaging, the Republicans began to suffer and never regained their footing. The Democrats continue to control the messaging, but will this trend hold until November 2012?

I Expect Obama to Win in 2012...If the Vote Happened Today

Northeast
Obama - CT, DE, MA, MD, ME (AL, 1, 2), NY, PA, VT
Romney - NH (Yes; I do expect Romney to carry New Hampshire)

The South
Obama - DC, MD
Romney - AL, AR, GA, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, TX, WV
Toss Ups - FL, MO, NC, VA

Midwest
Obama - IA, IL, MI, MN, OH, WI
Romney - IN, KS, ND, NE (AL, 1, 2, 3), SD

The West
Obama - CA, CO, HI, NM, NV, OR, WA
Romney - AK, AZ, ID, MT, UT, WY

That's 286 electoral points for Obama and 185 for Romney if you weren't keeping track.  It's interesting to note that the South is still somewhat sold on Obama.  Obama will carry the state of Maryland and the District of Columbia and all of the toss up states are in the South.

No Deal: My Letter to the President

Dear Barack Obama,

No deal, Mister President!  No, I’m not talking about your capitulation on our nation’s solvent social safety net, I’m talking about any deal to trim the deficit whatsoever in conjunction with this debt ceiling vote.  I, and more than likely, the majority of the American people, want to see this debt ceiling vote come to a head with no political bipartisanship affecting its outcome.

The American debt ceiling is not a tool to use as a weapon against the heads of the American people and the economy, nor is it negotiable, raising it to pay our debts and keep the government functioning is constitutionally mandated; you, Mister President and constitutional scholar, should already know this.  If you offer any type of deal, be it good or bad, even from a progressive stand-point, this will open the Pandora’s Box for what can be leveraged with the debt ceiling vote, so offer no deal!

Offer no deal and use your constitutional and executive authority to raise the debt ceiling yourself with the aid of the Treasury Department; our economy is at stake, America is at stake, Americans are at stake, do not throw any of these things or people under the bus with meaningless political theater.  Allowing any deal undermines the authority of the executive and sets a precedent for others who will follow this Congress to use the debt ceiling as leverage against a sitting president.  I and the American people understand the deficit needs to be tamed, however, I must urge you that doing so with the Full, Faith, and Credit of the United States and the economies of other nations which rely on our economy to keep the markets stable and fair with proper competition literally at gun point would be the destruction of any recovery made thus far since the end of the Great Recession.

Sincerely,

A Concerned American Citizen

Opportunity to Stop the Loss

In a time of military conflict, fears of the next 9/11, and large amounts of loss of life in relation to this conflict, our biggest threat to national security has been made clear over seventeen years ago.  The continuation of this threat is clear as all of our GOP and certain Democratic lawmakers seem to ignore the obvious fact that it is false.  This false threat is, as you can guess, is allowing gay men and lesbians to serve openly in our military.

When the Democrats took control in the sweeping victory that was the 2008 presidential election, they had the opportunity to move swiftly on a major issue that affects not only the gay and lesbian soldiers serving, but their families, as well.  President Obama made five promises to the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgendered (LGBT) community.  Of these promises, he has kept one and broken one.  Forty-percent of these promises have stalled because of the unlikely chance they will be put up to a vote before the end of the lame duck session, before the GOP takes control of the House and begin their tirade of oppression once more.  That leaves just one promise left to keep, the promise Obama made to the LGBT community and soldiers serving in our military:  to repeal the ineffective, demeaning, wasteful, and demoralizing policy dubbed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (DADT).

The President has asked the LGBT community and soldiers for patience to remove this policy at a less disruptive pace, now look where our patience got us.  This policy is not still in effect because of combat effectiveness or military readiness, it is in effect because of bigots and liars, like John McCain, the rest of the GOP lawmakers, and even some of the self-titled Democratic lawmakers, who are anti-gay to the core.  I use the title “lawmaker” because the majority of the public, conservative democrats and republicans included, agree with the Joint Chiefs of Staff that this policy is discriminatory, a waste of money and should become part of our shameful history, not our shameful present.  For a party elected on the platform of representing all Americans, why is that at least 70% of these GOP lawmakers failed to vote in favor of repeal?  The simple answer:  these lawmakers are anti-gay bigots who are too scared to own up to that fact and instead choose to hide behind the veil of religion!

President Obama knew this, as he was a lawmaker fighting for LGBT rights before he became the leader of the “Free” World.  This fact is both saddening and astounding because of the slow-as-molasses-don’t-worry-we’ll-get-to-it approach he and the Democratic leadership decided to take.  What is more astounding is how Obama was handed an excellent opportunity to end this policy as early as September of this year by issuing a stop-loss clause to kill the discriminatory policy after a federal judge ruled it unconstitutional.  Instead, our fearless leader opted to shrivel like a coward, bend to the bigoted will of the anti-gay lawmakers, and challenge the ruling after the issuance of an injunction.  Although the Obama administration has won an indefinite stay on the injunction while it prepares to appeal the ruling that stated DADT unconstitutional, it is still not too late.  I do not expect there to be enough time to vote on DADT repeal with the timeframe Harry Reid has set for this lame duck, nor do I expect the Senate to allow the lame duck to end without passing the 2011 NDAA.  This means that DADT repeal language will more than likely be stripped from the bill.

It is still not too late to drop the appeal and let the ruling stand, which I doubt the Obama administration will.  President Obama, you are dropping the ball on your gay and lesbian constituents and the polls have proven that!  It is time for a good deed, Mr. President; it is time to deliver before you lose the constituency forever.  Mr. President, this is not an opportunity lost, but merely an opportunity to stop the unnecessary loss.

Compromise This!

As we heard from the President himself, compromise is on the table.  This is a great idea, as without it, the country could face a costly gridlock as legislation halts completely and indefinitely on the Hill.  The test Obama will have to face is figuring out how and when to draw the line on such compromises without stoking the fire of the visceral anger of the American people responsible for ousting his legislative backbone within the House and Senate.

We have already seen Obama answer a very important question in this compromise test, which is what to do about the Bush-era tax cuts?  His answer:  continue the tax cuts for everyone, with the exception of the Americans who make the top two-percent of its income.  This is the correct answer and a good way to force an unlikely compromise between that of the GOP and the tea partiers who help to put them in office.  The GOP can argue all they like, but the Democrats can counter with exposing them for who they truly are, pawns of the rich and corporate.  I am willing to bet arguing to nearly double the amount of money spent (an extra $700-billion) to basically give extra money to the wealthy will not sit well with their new electorate who demanded, at the polls, fiscal responsibility from our government.

If played well, the Democrats will probably retake the White House and at least one chamber of Congress in 2012.  This sweeping wave of red across the country represents change, a new direction for America.  Now is the time for Democrats to connect with the American people and tout their record of good, but they must do so without arrogance.  The schism the Republican Party is creating within itself will soon mean a creation of a third party of politics, or a slow extinction of the far-right politics of the GOP.  This is the excellent opportunity needed for the Democrats to expose the GOP’s true nature.  Capitalizing on this opportunity can be dangerously challenging, however, for the Democratic Party, for choosing to put politics before policy can be detrimental to their party, as well as the GOP.