New Graphs!

1 Mitt Romney is still running away with the nomination race

2 President Obama is still very likely to win, which is why no Republican knight or dame will step forward during the convention; that's right, scratch contested convention off your list

3 Mitt Romney has slowed Rick Santorum's momentum

Santorum Is Back

Santorum is back to the point at which he was at his height on the GOPI as Romney and Gingrich slip, but like Romney, he will have an uphill battle in November against President Obama if nominated!

Santorum Is Gaining...Again

Romney is losing the message on manufacturing to Santorum and will probably lose Michigan because of this fact. Romney is gaining strength in Arizona; misspoken McCain has been forgiven.

Charts!

My latest charts!

Take away:
1) Mitt Romney is the likely nominee; but not the likely 45th President
2) Rick Santorum is doing surprisingly well in Minnesota
3) Barack Obama is doing very well; riding on the wave of good economical news
4) Mitt Romney continues to dig his own grave with out-of-touch, I'm-better-than-you gaffes
5) This Republican nomination race is long from over

Electability Update for 3-Feb

Awaiting more polling out of the battleground states: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

2012 Presidential Updates

The candidates have stagnated; good for Romney, bad for Newt!

GOPI, CVI, Electability Updates

The Gingrich attack machine seems to be having an effect on Romney nationally, but not in Florida. Unfortunately, the Gingrich attack machine seems to also be effecting the Republican Party brand as Democrats are starting to do much better, including President Obama.

Romney wants this race settled sooner (April) rather than later (Convention) and with very good reason. If this race continues with Newt Gingrich and the other Republican candidates cannibalizing each other, Obama will be unstoppable by November during the election that really counts, the general.

GOPI Update for 27-Jan

Nationally, the candidates seemed to have stagnated, but that's not the case. Florida and Minnesota have exchanged hands; with Romney now likely to win Florida and Gingrich polling very well in Minnesota.

Good news for Obama: His very popular populist speech at the SOTU seems to have resinated with the American people; his favorability has gone up with voters of all backgrounds. He is also doing better against all GOP candidates on a generic ballot and, for the first time since last summer, as good as the Generic GOP candidate.

GOPI Update for 23-Jan

Even with the large gap to close to catch up to Romney, Newt is back; but for this mercurial candidate, how long?

Obama is looking better against Romney; his lead against Gingrich is the same as before.

GOPI & Electability Charts Updated

As Romney continues to race toward his inevitable nomination, he is beginning to close the electability gap against Obama. The populous, negative attack ads are seeming to have the opposite desired affect on him; or it could just be the right-wing media coming to Romney's aid.

GOPI, CVI, and Electability Charts Updated!

Takeaways:
1 Huntsman is out and no one seems to notice
2 Romney continues to benefit from the large number of Republicans who realize he is their strongest candidate
3 Santorum may have met his peak
4 Newt Gingrich...

Who's the Most Electable?

That's what I thought!

2012 Map, thus far!

Obama - 286 | Romney - 185 | Toss Up - 67

I Expect Obama to Win in 2012...If the Vote Happened Today

Northeast
Obama - CT, DE, MA, MD, ME (AL, 1, 2), NY, PA, VT
Romney - NH (Yes; I do expect Romney to carry New Hampshire)

The South
Obama - DC, MD
Romney - AL, AR, GA, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, TX, WV
Toss Ups - FL, MO, NC, VA

Midwest
Obama - IA, IL, MI, MN, OH, WI
Romney - IN, KS, ND, NE (AL, 1, 2, 3), SD

The West
Obama - CA, CO, HI, NM, NV, OR, WA
Romney - AK, AZ, ID, MT, UT, WY

That's 286 electoral points for Obama and 185 for Romney if you weren't keeping track.  It's interesting to note that the South is still somewhat sold on Obama.  Obama will carry the state of Maryland and the District of Columbia and all of the toss up states are in the South.

The Progressive Contract

As the campaign seasons heat up, you will hear more and more Republicans signing contracts and pledges.  Republican's have already pledged to take welfare from teen mothers (Republican Contract With America); destroy our healthcare system, kill Social Security, kill Medicare, continue the Ponzi scheme of feeding the coffers of the wealthy with the wages of the poor, deregulate Wall Street, bring education back to the time of segregation and high drop outs, dismantle earnest efforts for energy independence, destroy the environment, limit our right to vote (Tea Party Contract); ensure the poor and middle-class shoulder the burden in an effort to stabilize the economy, make abortion services almost unobtainable, eliminate due process, erase any hope that children of illegal immigrants who call themselves Americans from becoming legal Americans (GOP.gov Pledge); respect the marriages of others unless they're a same-sex couple, believe that same-sex couples make horrible parents, sex partners, and are likely to be involved in legal troubles and addiction, eliminate welfare for single parents, defend the unconstitutional DOMA [Destruction of Marriage Act], fight to enshrine bigotry within the United States Constitution, reinstatement of DADT, abolish abortion, put girls under lock and key until marriage, ban pornography [damn the First Amendment!], reject Sharia Law [doesn't the First Amendment and Article IV of the Constitution already do that?] (Bob Vander Plaats Pledge for 2012ers); again, enshrine social inequalities and bigotry into our constitution, appoint activist judges [but they support conservatives, so they're not really activists], institute McCarthyist witch hunts into supporters of same-sex marriage and gay persons, eliminate due process in the District of Columbia (NOM Pledge).

All that ruining of America is a lot to take in, I know; for these reasons alone, we as progressives must not become short sided of our goals.  I just saw a new progressive contract that was emailed to me; I'll not name the organization, but I found this alarming.  Why change something we already have, something that is already tried, true, and more importantly, trusted.  We as progressives have followed one pledge, and one pledge alone.  It is the Progressive Contract which I derived from FDR's October 31, 1936 campaign speech we know as, "I Welcome Their Hatred!"  In that speech, he laid the pillars and foundation for what would become the cornerstones of the modern progressive and democratic movement.  This contract is still in use today and should remain in use for as long as the American progressive movement shall live.  This is the first pledge, the first contract, and the only contract that stands by the everyday American.  This is who we are, not only as progressives, but as a nation.

Below, are the enumerated promises made by FDR to the American people; below is the true progressive pledge to America.

The Progressive Contract
By Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Our vision for the future contains more than promises.
1. Improve working conditions for the workers of America
1. Reduce hours over-long
2. Increase wages that spell starvation
3. End the labor of children
4. Wipe out sweatshops
5. End monopoly in business
6. Support collective bargaining
7. Stop unfair competition
8. Abolish dishonorable trade policies
2. Cheaper electricity in the homes and on the farms of America
3. Better and cheaper transportation
4. Low interest rates
5. Sounder home financing
6. Better banking
7. Regulation of security issues
8. Reciprocal trade among nations
9. The wiping out of slums
10. Better land use and reforestation
11. Conservation of water all the way from its source to the sea
12. Drought and flood control
13. Provide useful work for the needy unemployed
1. Refuse to accept the disparagement of the unemployed
2. Keep government on the side of the Good Samaritan
3. Continue insurance for the unemployed
4. We prefer useful work to the pauperism of a dole
14. Continue our efforts for young men and women so that they may obtain an education and opportunity to put to use
15. Help for the crippled, for the blind, for the mothers
16. Provide security for the aged
17. Protect the consumer against unnecessary price spreads
1. Protect against the costs that are added by monopoly and speculation
2. Continue our efforts to increase the consumer purchasing power and keep it constant
For all these, we must continue to fight!

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

My Projections:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 43%

Likely Electoral Points: 236

Rick Perry* (R) [Governor - Texas]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 233

The swing states have been narrowed to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, holding a total of 69 points.  Obama will likely take PA and NH, and Perry will likely take NC and OH, leaving Iowa and Nevada up for grabs.  Obama would have to win both Iowa and Nevada to win the election if this event happens.  The state to watch in this election is Iowa.  We are still to close to call!

Here is a link to my 2012 prediction map:   http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bXx

Feel free to make your predictions and share!

*I predict Rick Perry, the Teavangelical front runner, will likely win the necessary 1212 delegates required to win the Republican nod over establishment front runner, Mitt Romney.

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

Here are my predictions:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

Gallup: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 174

M Romney (R) [Fm. Governor - Massachusetts]

Gallup: 39%

Likely Electoral Points: 181

With the swing states of CO, FL, ME (1)*, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, OH, OR, PA, and VA holding 183 electoral points, this prediction is still too close to call.

*Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all states; I estimate all 5 delegates from Nebraska will lean GOP.  3 Maine delegates will likely lean Democrat, leaving 1 Main delegate as a swing vote.

This has been updated to reflect Mitt Romney's likely win over Rick Perry.  I expect Mitt Romney to take at least three-fifths of the delegates to the Republican National Convention.

No Deal: My Letter to the President

Dear Barack Obama,

No deal, Mister President!  No, I’m not talking about your capitulation on our nation’s solvent social safety net, I’m talking about any deal to trim the deficit whatsoever in conjunction with this debt ceiling vote.  I, and more than likely, the majority of the American people, want to see this debt ceiling vote come to a head with no political bipartisanship affecting its outcome.

The American debt ceiling is not a tool to use as a weapon against the heads of the American people and the economy, nor is it negotiable, raising it to pay our debts and keep the government functioning is constitutionally mandated; you, Mister President and constitutional scholar, should already know this.  If you offer any type of deal, be it good or bad, even from a progressive stand-point, this will open the Pandora’s Box for what can be leveraged with the debt ceiling vote, so offer no deal!

Offer no deal and use your constitutional and executive authority to raise the debt ceiling yourself with the aid of the Treasury Department; our economy is at stake, America is at stake, Americans are at stake, do not throw any of these things or people under the bus with meaningless political theater.  Allowing any deal undermines the authority of the executive and sets a precedent for others who will follow this Congress to use the debt ceiling as leverage against a sitting president.  I and the American people understand the deficit needs to be tamed, however, I must urge you that doing so with the Full, Faith, and Credit of the United States and the economies of other nations which rely on our economy to keep the markets stable and fair with proper competition literally at gun point would be the destruction of any recovery made thus far since the end of the Great Recession.

Sincerely,

A Concerned American Citizen

More REPUBLICAN LIES

The GOP ran on a campaign touting jobs-creation, smaller government, and working harder for the American people! The first things they do when they get into office: waste time and tax-payer money in a futile attempt to repeal the job-creating, life-improving, deficit-reducing Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), attack women's reproductive rights by trying to redefine rape and incest, destroy families and attack marriages with so-called "marriage protection" amendments, and try to slow the implementation of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal, which would prevent the destruction of important military careers (jobs) and stop the waste of tax-payer money. Those of you who voted Republican last year, you've been had; thanks for voting to ruin America!

Opportunity to Stop the Loss

In a time of military conflict, fears of the next 9/11, and large amounts of loss of life in relation to this conflict, our biggest threat to national security has been made clear over seventeen years ago.  The continuation of this threat is clear as all of our GOP and certain Democratic lawmakers seem to ignore the obvious fact that it is false.  This false threat is, as you can guess, is allowing gay men and lesbians to serve openly in our military.

When the Democrats took control in the sweeping victory that was the 2008 presidential election, they had the opportunity to move swiftly on a major issue that affects not only the gay and lesbian soldiers serving, but their families, as well.  President Obama made five promises to the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgendered (LGBT) community.  Of these promises, he has kept one and broken one.  Forty-percent of these promises have stalled because of the unlikely chance they will be put up to a vote before the end of the lame duck session, before the GOP takes control of the House and begin their tirade of oppression once more.  That leaves just one promise left to keep, the promise Obama made to the LGBT community and soldiers serving in our military:  to repeal the ineffective, demeaning, wasteful, and demoralizing policy dubbed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (DADT).

The President has asked the LGBT community and soldiers for patience to remove this policy at a less disruptive pace, now look where our patience got us.  This policy is not still in effect because of combat effectiveness or military readiness, it is in effect because of bigots and liars, like John McCain, the rest of the GOP lawmakers, and even some of the self-titled Democratic lawmakers, who are anti-gay to the core.  I use the title “lawmaker” because the majority of the public, conservative democrats and republicans included, agree with the Joint Chiefs of Staff that this policy is discriminatory, a waste of money and should become part of our shameful history, not our shameful present.  For a party elected on the platform of representing all Americans, why is that at least 70% of these GOP lawmakers failed to vote in favor of repeal?  The simple answer:  these lawmakers are anti-gay bigots who are too scared to own up to that fact and instead choose to hide behind the veil of religion!

President Obama knew this, as he was a lawmaker fighting for LGBT rights before he became the leader of the “Free” World.  This fact is both saddening and astounding because of the slow-as-molasses-don’t-worry-we’ll-get-to-it approach he and the Democratic leadership decided to take.  What is more astounding is how Obama was handed an excellent opportunity to end this policy as early as September of this year by issuing a stop-loss clause to kill the discriminatory policy after a federal judge ruled it unconstitutional.  Instead, our fearless leader opted to shrivel like a coward, bend to the bigoted will of the anti-gay lawmakers, and challenge the ruling after the issuance of an injunction.  Although the Obama administration has won an indefinite stay on the injunction while it prepares to appeal the ruling that stated DADT unconstitutional, it is still not too late.  I do not expect there to be enough time to vote on DADT repeal with the timeframe Harry Reid has set for this lame duck, nor do I expect the Senate to allow the lame duck to end without passing the 2011 NDAA.  This means that DADT repeal language will more than likely be stripped from the bill.

It is still not too late to drop the appeal and let the ruling stand, which I doubt the Obama administration will.  President Obama, you are dropping the ball on your gay and lesbian constituents and the polls have proven that!  It is time for a good deed, Mr. President; it is time to deliver before you lose the constituency forever.  Mr. President, this is not an opportunity lost, but merely an opportunity to stop the unnecessary loss.