GOPI Update for 19-Jan

With the field narrowing and the dwindling momentum of Santorum and Paul, the Mitternative, Newt Gingrich, is enjoying another surge in South Carolina which will likely carry into Florida.

GOPI & Electability Charts Updated

As Romney continues to race toward his inevitable nomination, he is beginning to close the electability gap against Obama. The populous, negative attack ads are seeming to have the opposite desired affect on him; or it could just be the right-wing media coming to Romney's aid.

GOPI, CVI, and Electability Charts Updated!

Takeaways:
1 Huntsman is out and no one seems to notice
2 Romney continues to benefit from the large number of Republicans who realize he is their strongest candidate
3 Santorum may have met his peak
4 Newt Gingrich...

GOPI Updated

Takeaways:

1 Romney is going to be Barack Obama's opponent in November
2 Gingrich is finished; there is no way the former Speaker can recover
3 The Huntsmentum has ended, although one would wonder if it ever started
4 Ron Paul is continuing steady which, as Mitt Romney has shown, can be a good thing
5 Santorum needs to find a boost in more moderate states if he wants to continue passed February

Who's the Most Electable?

That's what I thought!

GOPI Update

The Gingrich implosion continues as Santorum rises, Paul's protest candidacy continues, and Huntsman begins to erode Romney's lead.

Another GOPI Update!

Take-away:

1) Gingrich is imploding, even in the South
2) Romney is gaining in the South
3) Santorum is gaining faster than Romney in the South

GOPI Update!

Rick Perry; drop out, please!

GOPI and CVI Update!

Explaining the GOPI in five steps:
1. Romney's steady pace may actually pay off in the Iowa Caucuses
2. Paul has lost his Iowa momentum for many reasons, including his resurfaced anti-gay, racist newsletters
3. Santorum's surge may not be enough to take Iowa
4. Gingrich has lost steam, but only enough to stagnate his progress
5. Texas still has a love affair with their governor

Gingrich Cannot Win Virginia!

New GOPI Update!

Newt Gingrich fails to submit enough signatures to qualify for the Virginia Ballot; Romney will likely gain from this folly as Paul and Perry stabilize. The stabilization is good for Perry and bad for Paul.

GOPI Update!

The GOPI has been updated for 12/21/2011!

Rick Perry is on the verge of crashing and burning; his decline is directly benefiting Newt Gingrich in the more conservative states. Ron Paul, who has surpassed Rick Perry continues to climb as his momentum is seeping into South Dakota (Nielson Brothers). If Ron Paul takes Iowa, that may in fact not be the end of his run. Newt Gingrich continues to catch up to Mitt Romney and Romney is making that easier for Gingrch as he continues to slip.

Introducing the GOPI

The GOPI /GO-pE/

The GOPI is my attempt at graphically representing the GOP Presidential Primary at the national level. Unlike other attempts at assessing the mood of the Republican party towards the presidential candidates, which use a national poll, the GOPI uses a compilation of the latest polling data from the state level. During a primary, presidential candidates are not vetted and chosen nationally, they are chosen locally, in the individual states and territories. This is based on the polling and expectations of the candidates' performance in the various states. The GOPI only includes still active presidential hopefuls. This summer, I plan to introduce a presidential index.

The GOPI measures the candidates chances of getting their party's nod. The GOPI ranges from 0 to 1000 points. Mitt Romney, although faltering overall, is showing that slow and steady wins the race. Newt Gingrich, who is slipping in Iowa, is doing increasingly well in California, the northern Rockies, much of the South, and parts of the Rust Belt. Rick Perry has fallen to just two states of influence, and even those are up for grabs: Texas and Oklahoma. Ron Paul is poised to take Iowa, but that's where his apparent momentum ceases. I plan to up date this as much as possible (I am limited to local polling) between now and the Iowa Caucuses.

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

My Projections:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 43%

Likely Electoral Points: 236

Rick Perry* (R) [Governor - Texas]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 233

The swing states have been narrowed to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, holding a total of 69 points.  Obama will likely take PA and NH, and Perry will likely take NC and OH, leaving Iowa and Nevada up for grabs.  Obama would have to win both Iowa and Nevada to win the election if this event happens.  The state to watch in this election is Iowa.  We are still to close to call!

Here is a link to my 2012 prediction map:   http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bXx

Feel free to make your predictions and share!

*I predict Rick Perry, the Teavangelical front runner, will likely win the necessary 1212 delegates required to win the Republican nod over establishment front runner, Mitt Romney.

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

Here are my predictions:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

Gallup: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 174

M Romney (R) [Fm. Governor - Massachusetts]

Gallup: 39%

Likely Electoral Points: 181

With the swing states of CO, FL, ME (1)*, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, OH, OR, PA, and VA holding 183 electoral points, this prediction is still too close to call.

*Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all states; I estimate all 5 delegates from Nebraska will lean GOP.  3 Maine delegates will likely lean Democrat, leaving 1 Main delegate as a swing vote.

This has been updated to reflect Mitt Romney's likely win over Rick Perry.  I expect Mitt Romney to take at least three-fifths of the delegates to the Republican National Convention.