New Graphs!

1 Mitt Romney is still running away with the nomination race

2 President Obama is still very likely to win, which is why no Republican knight or dame will step forward during the convention; that's right, scratch contested convention off your list

3 Mitt Romney has slowed Rick Santorum's momentum

Santorum Is Back

Santorum is back to the point at which he was at his height on the GOPI as Romney and Gingrich slip, but like Romney, he will have an uphill battle in November against President Obama if nominated!

Santorum Is Gaining...Again

Romney is losing the message on manufacturing to Santorum and will probably lose Michigan because of this fact. Romney is gaining strength in Arizona; misspoken McCain has been forgiven.

Charts!

My latest charts!

Take away:
1) Mitt Romney is the likely nominee; but not the likely 45th President
2) Rick Santorum is doing surprisingly well in Minnesota
3) Barack Obama is doing very well; riding on the wave of good economical news
4) Mitt Romney continues to dig his own grave with out-of-touch, I'm-better-than-you gaffes
5) This Republican nomination race is long from over

Electability Update for 3-Feb

Awaiting more polling out of the battleground states: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

2012 Presidential Updates

The candidates have stagnated; good for Romney, bad for Newt!

GOPI, CVI, Electability Updates

The Gingrich attack machine seems to be having an effect on Romney nationally, but not in Florida. Unfortunately, the Gingrich attack machine seems to also be effecting the Republican Party brand as Democrats are starting to do much better, including President Obama.

Romney wants this race settled sooner (April) rather than later (Convention) and with very good reason. If this race continues with Newt Gingrich and the other Republican candidates cannibalizing each other, Obama will be unstoppable by November during the election that really counts, the general.

GOPI Update for 27-Jan

Nationally, the candidates seemed to have stagnated, but that's not the case. Florida and Minnesota have exchanged hands; with Romney now likely to win Florida and Gingrich polling very well in Minnesota.

Good news for Obama: His very popular populist speech at the SOTU seems to have resinated with the American people; his favorability has gone up with voters of all backgrounds. He is also doing better against all GOP candidates on a generic ballot and, for the first time since last summer, as good as the Generic GOP candidate.

GOPI Update for 23-Jan

Even with the large gap to close to catch up to Romney, Newt is back; but for this mercurial candidate, how long?

Obama is looking better against Romney; his lead against Gingrich is the same as before.

GOPI Update for 19-Jan

With the field narrowing and the dwindling momentum of Santorum and Paul, the Mitternative, Newt Gingrich, is enjoying another surge in South Carolina which will likely carry into Florida.

GOPI & Electability Charts Updated

As Romney continues to race toward his inevitable nomination, he is beginning to close the electability gap against Obama. The populous, negative attack ads are seeming to have the opposite desired affect on him; or it could just be the right-wing media coming to Romney's aid.

GOPI, CVI, and Electability Charts Updated!

Takeaways:
1 Huntsman is out and no one seems to notice
2 Romney continues to benefit from the large number of Republicans who realize he is their strongest candidate
3 Santorum may have met his peak
4 Newt Gingrich...

GOPI Updated

Takeaways:

1 Romney is going to be Barack Obama's opponent in November
2 Gingrich is finished; there is no way the former Speaker can recover
3 The Huntsmentum has ended, although one would wonder if it ever started
4 Ron Paul is continuing steady which, as Mitt Romney has shown, can be a good thing
5 Santorum needs to find a boost in more moderate states if he wants to continue passed February

Electability Still In Obama's Favor

Even with his historical back-to-back wins in the first-in-the nation caucus and primary, Mitt Romney, the strongest Republican candidate, is still weaker than President Obama. Remember, Mitt, Republicans may fall in line, Democrats may fall in love, but independents fall in lucidity.

Who's the Most Electable?

That's what I thought!

GOPI Update

The Gingrich implosion continues as Santorum rises, Paul's protest candidacy continues, and Huntsman begins to erode Romney's lead.

Another GOPI Update!

Take-away:

1) Gingrich is imploding, even in the South
2) Romney is gaining in the South
3) Santorum is gaining faster than Romney in the South

GOPI Update!

Rick Perry; drop out, please!

GOPI and CVI Update!

Explaining the GOPI in five steps:
1. Romney's steady pace may actually pay off in the Iowa Caucuses
2. Paul has lost his Iowa momentum for many reasons, including his resurfaced anti-gay, racist newsletters
3. Santorum's surge may not be enough to take Iowa
4. Gingrich has lost steam, but only enough to stagnate his progress
5. Texas still has a love affair with their governor

Gingrich Cannot Win Virginia!

New GOPI Update!

Newt Gingrich fails to submit enough signatures to qualify for the Virginia Ballot; Romney will likely gain from this folly as Paul and Perry stabilize. The stabilization is good for Perry and bad for Paul.