Charts!

My latest charts!

Take away:
1) Mitt Romney is the likely nominee; but not the likely 45th President
2) Rick Santorum is doing surprisingly well in Minnesota
3) Barack Obama is doing very well; riding on the wave of good economical news
4) Mitt Romney continues to dig his own grave with out-of-touch, I'm-better-than-you gaffes
5) This Republican nomination race is long from over

Introducing the Congressional Voter Index

The Congressional Voter Index:

This index is a measure of the true balance of power on the hill reflected through victories and the mood of the electorate. May 15th may be an outlier, or it is an indicator that the Democrats seemed to have gotten some control in the debt ceiling debate. May fifteenth is also a turning point for the Democrats who were riding on Obama's coat tails after the raid on and killing of Osama bin Laden.

The Democrat's horrible handling of the debt negotiations lead to a massive loss for them during the summer, as well as a loss of the public's trust. However, this was not the end of the Democrats because they had another trick up their sleeves: the American Jobs Act.

Failing to act on a package, any package, that would produce jobs and failing to gain the lead on the messaging, the Republicans began to suffer and never regained their footing. The Democrats continue to control the messaging, but will this trend hold until November 2012?

My Platform

Instead of writing this out, I'll just provide a chart of my platform if I were running for president.  What would you change?  Would you add anything?  Comments are more than welcome!

Category	Items	Federal	State	Private	Total
Infrastructure	Aviation Bridges Dams Drinking Water Energy Hazardous Waste Inland Waterways Levees Public Parks & Recreation Rail Roads Schools Solid Waste Transit Wastewater Cover 90% at federal level, 7% at state level and 3% from private funding	$ 1,980B	$ 154B	$ 66B	$ 2,200B
Student Loans	Forgive federal student loans	$ 830B			$ 830B
R & D	Increase subsidies for research and development for universities, medical research, non-profits, and for-profit commercial businesses making less than $ 1 M per year.	Increase Deficit
Trade	Eliminate taxes on exports	Increase
Welfare	Continue unemployment insurance Fund job training programs	Increase
Bush Tax Cuts	Eliminate Bush tax cuts for incomes of $ 250 K+ Phase out Bush tax cuts for incomes of $ 175 K + over next three years Phase out Bush tax cuts for incomes of $100 K + over next six years Phase out remaining Bush tax cuts for incomes under $100 K over next ten years	-$1,400B			-$1,400B
Corporations	Close tax loopholes and simplify the tax code Reduce corporate tax rate Subsidize corporations who operate completely in America Eliminate subsidies to oil and gas Eliminate tax cuts for corporate jets Print more money Tax corporate savings Institute a tax penalty on American-based companies who sell foreign built products in America	Decrease
USPS	Eliminate regulations that drain the postal service of funds	Increase
Defense	Cut spending by 30% as suggested by Robert Gates	-$ .800B			-$ .800B
Social Security	Social Security is actually in the least amount of danger when compared to the rest of the social safety net Do not change Social Security for people age 40 and up Ages 30 - 39:  Raise retirement age by two years Below age 30:  Raise retirement age by four years Reduce amount of benefits based on earnings and retirement Increase FICA deduction but cut the amount employers have to match (55 employees/45 employers for companies making less than $ 1 M; no change for companies making higher than $ 1 M) Eliminate income tax cap on Social Security payroll tax without burdening employers				-$ 0.0B
Medicare	Lower eligibility age by fifteen years every three years to include a healthier population Require higher copayments for wealthy seniors Eliminate Medicare Advantage plans Do not repeal the ACA Negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies (Act of Congress)
Wages	Increase minimum wage to $ 10 per hour				-$ 0.0B
Sales Tax	Ban the use of national sales taxes and internet sales taxes				-$ 0.0B
Main Street	Bail out Main Street by forgiving underwater mortgages Rescind the stimulus given to big banks who withhold lending Limit debit card fees Match interest on college or trade school savings accounts Continue payroll tax holiday for middle and lower class	Increase
Education	Eliminate national testing Eliminate attendance discouragements by outlawing bullying with a clear and defined comprehensive non-biased anti-bullying program that includes training for instructors, principals, and students Expand broadband to rural areas	Increase
Laws & Elections	Stop defending DOMA with taxpayer funds by repealing it Legalize same-sex marriage across the nation Pass the DREAM Act Pass ENDA Eliminate the debt ceiling Limit influence of Super PAC's in elections & investigate voter suppression Institute a non-partisan fact checking organization to fact check claims made by legislators and the executive Balance the Supreme Court by appointing one more Liberal justice and a true independent justice (there is no limit to the number of justices on the bench) Pass fair pay legislation Require companies consider American citizens for any job before workers in nation on a work Visa Expedite citizenship for foreign students here on a Student Visa after graduation				-$ 0.0B
Tax the Rich	Tax capital gains as if it were regular income	Decrease
Discretionary	Reduce DOD spending (-71.5 B) Reduce War on Terror Spending (-26.3 B) Increase spending on VA (+12.3 B) Increase disaster spending bank (+14.0 B)	-$ 71.5B			-$ 71.5B
The Dollar	Use interest rates for borrowing and lending to stabilize the domestic economy and strengthen the dollar				-$ 0.0B

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

My Projections:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 43%

Likely Electoral Points: 236

Rick Perry* (R) [Governor - Texas]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 233

The swing states have been narrowed to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, holding a total of 69 points.  Obama will likely take PA and NH, and Perry will likely take NC and OH, leaving Iowa and Nevada up for grabs.  Obama would have to win both Iowa and Nevada to win the election if this event happens.  The state to watch in this election is Iowa.  We are still to close to call!

Here is a link to my 2012 prediction map:   http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bXx

Feel free to make your predictions and share!

*I predict Rick Perry, the Teavangelical front runner, will likely win the necessary 1212 delegates required to win the Republican nod over establishment front runner, Mitt Romney.

No Deal: My Letter to the President

Dear Barack Obama,

No deal, Mister President!  No, I’m not talking about your capitulation on our nation’s solvent social safety net, I’m talking about any deal to trim the deficit whatsoever in conjunction with this debt ceiling vote.  I, and more than likely, the majority of the American people, want to see this debt ceiling vote come to a head with no political bipartisanship affecting its outcome.

The American debt ceiling is not a tool to use as a weapon against the heads of the American people and the economy, nor is it negotiable, raising it to pay our debts and keep the government functioning is constitutionally mandated; you, Mister President and constitutional scholar, should already know this.  If you offer any type of deal, be it good or bad, even from a progressive stand-point, this will open the Pandora’s Box for what can be leveraged with the debt ceiling vote, so offer no deal!

Offer no deal and use your constitutional and executive authority to raise the debt ceiling yourself with the aid of the Treasury Department; our economy is at stake, America is at stake, Americans are at stake, do not throw any of these things or people under the bus with meaningless political theater.  Allowing any deal undermines the authority of the executive and sets a precedent for others who will follow this Congress to use the debt ceiling as leverage against a sitting president.  I and the American people understand the deficit needs to be tamed, however, I must urge you that doing so with the Full, Faith, and Credit of the United States and the economies of other nations which rely on our economy to keep the markets stable and fair with proper competition literally at gun point would be the destruction of any recovery made thus far since the end of the Great Recession.

Sincerely,

A Concerned American Citizen

#GOP Field Much Worse Than Before!

After watching the first two Republican Debates, the first one being on Fox and the second on CNN, I have noticed just how blatant these candidates are being when waging divisive culture wars and trying to out-"right" (far out-"right") their other opponents.  When I was first able to vote, being the math-minded, logical person that I am, I created a point-system to rate the candidates depending on their answers to certain questions during the debate.  The point-system has been extremely reliable in picking a candidate who was more in line with progressive values throughout the nation.  Picking a president is not about his charisma and how well he or she can spin a topic into his or her favor.

A candidate can either gain or lose the points depending on the topics in which he or she answers listed herein:

Civil Rights = 600 points

Workers Rights = 500

Gay Rights = 1000

Economy = 300

Corporations = 500

Iraq = 200

Afghanistan = 300

Pakistan = 200

Libya = 200

Israel = 300

Healthcare = 400

Medicare = 400

Social Security = 400

Defense Spending = 300

Fair Tax = 200

Middle Class Rights = 400

Immigration = 200

Gun Laws = 100

Middle East Protests = 200

Abortion Rights = 600

Stem Cell (Embryonic) Research = 200

Education = 300

Energy = 300

Environment = 400

Drug Laws = 200

Tea Party = 300

Space & Technology = 200

Role of the Federal Government = 300

Debt Ceiling = 400

National Security = 300

Lying = Automatic 100 point deduction

Miss a Debate = Automatic 1000 point deduction

After watching two debates, here is where the GOP candidates stand:

Republican	Debates
M Bachmann	-6100
H Cain	-5300
N Gingrich	-4600
G Johnson	-1500
R Paul	-400
T Pawlenty	-5000
M Romney	-4700
R Santorum	-4800

Currently, Ron Paul is in the lead with negative 400 points; I must say, this is pretty sad.  The gay rights, Medicare, workers rights, healthcare, social security, debt ceiling, role of the federal government, and abortion issues killed all of these candidates.  They are just too far right, for my tastes, and I imagine mainstream Republicans.

More REPUBLICAN LIES

The GOP ran on a campaign touting jobs-creation, smaller government, and working harder for the American people! The first things they do when they get into office: waste time and tax-payer money in a futile attempt to repeal the job-creating, life-improving, deficit-reducing Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), attack women's reproductive rights by trying to redefine rape and incest, destroy families and attack marriages with so-called "marriage protection" amendments, and try to slow the implementation of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal, which would prevent the destruction of important military careers (jobs) and stop the waste of tax-payer money. Those of you who voted Republican last year, you've been had; thanks for voting to ruin America!