Introducing the Congressional Voter Index

The Congressional Voter Index:

This index is a measure of the true balance of power on the hill reflected through victories and the mood of the electorate. May 15th may be an outlier, or it is an indicator that the Democrats seemed to have gotten some control in the debt ceiling debate. May fifteenth is also a turning point for the Democrats who were riding on Obama's coat tails after the raid on and killing of Osama bin Laden.

The Democrat's horrible handling of the debt negotiations lead to a massive loss for them during the summer, as well as a loss of the public's trust. However, this was not the end of the Democrats because they had another trick up their sleeves: the American Jobs Act.

Failing to act on a package, any package, that would produce jobs and failing to gain the lead on the messaging, the Republicans began to suffer and never regained their footing. The Democrats continue to control the messaging, but will this trend hold until November 2012?

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

My Projections:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 43%

Likely Electoral Points: 236

Rick Perry* (R) [Governor - Texas]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 233

The swing states have been narrowed to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, holding a total of 69 points.  Obama will likely take PA and NH, and Perry will likely take NC and OH, leaving Iowa and Nevada up for grabs.  Obama would have to win both Iowa and Nevada to win the election if this event happens.  The state to watch in this election is Iowa.  We are still to close to call!

Here is a link to my 2012 prediction map:   http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bXx

Feel free to make your predictions and share!

*I predict Rick Perry, the Teavangelical front runner, will likely win the necessary 1212 delegates required to win the Republican nod over establishment front runner, Mitt Romney.

More REPUBLICAN LIES

The GOP ran on a campaign touting jobs-creation, smaller government, and working harder for the American people! The first things they do when they get into office: waste time and tax-payer money in a futile attempt to repeal the job-creating, life-improving, deficit-reducing Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), attack women's reproductive rights by trying to redefine rape and incest, destroy families and attack marriages with so-called "marriage protection" amendments, and try to slow the implementation of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal, which would prevent the destruction of important military careers (jobs) and stop the waste of tax-payer money. Those of you who voted Republican last year, you've been had; thanks for voting to ruin America!

Compromise This!

As we heard from the President himself, compromise is on the table.  This is a great idea, as without it, the country could face a costly gridlock as legislation halts completely and indefinitely on the Hill.  The test Obama will have to face is figuring out how and when to draw the line on such compromises without stoking the fire of the visceral anger of the American people responsible for ousting his legislative backbone within the House and Senate.

We have already seen Obama answer a very important question in this compromise test, which is what to do about the Bush-era tax cuts?  His answer:  continue the tax cuts for everyone, with the exception of the Americans who make the top two-percent of its income.  This is the correct answer and a good way to force an unlikely compromise between that of the GOP and the tea partiers who help to put them in office.  The GOP can argue all they like, but the Democrats can counter with exposing them for who they truly are, pawns of the rich and corporate.  I am willing to bet arguing to nearly double the amount of money spent (an extra $700-billion) to basically give extra money to the wealthy will not sit well with their new electorate who demanded, at the polls, fiscal responsibility from our government.

If played well, the Democrats will probably retake the White House and at least one chamber of Congress in 2012.  This sweeping wave of red across the country represents change, a new direction for America.  Now is the time for Democrats to connect with the American people and tout their record of good, but they must do so without arrogance.  The schism the Republican Party is creating within itself will soon mean a creation of a third party of politics, or a slow extinction of the far-right politics of the GOP.  This is the excellent opportunity needed for the Democrats to expose the GOP’s true nature.  Capitalizing on this opportunity can be dangerously challenging, however, for the Democratic Party, for choosing to put politics before policy can be detrimental to their party, as well as the GOP.