The GOPI is my attempt at graphically representing the GOP Presidential Primary at the national level. Unlike other attempts at assessing the mood of the Republican party towards the presidential candidates, which use a national poll, the GOPI uses a compilation of the latest polling data from the state level. During a primary, presidential candidates are not vetted and chosen nationally, they are chosen locally, in the individual states and territories. This is based on the polling and expectations of the candidates' performance in the various states. The GOPI only includes still active presidential hopefuls. This summer, I plan to introduce a presidential index.
The GOPI measures the candidates chances of getting their party's nod. The GOPI ranges from 0 to 1000 points. Mitt Romney, although faltering overall, is showing that slow and steady wins the race. Newt Gingrich, who is slipping in Iowa, is doing increasingly well in California, the northern Rockies, much of the South, and parts of the Rust Belt. Rick Perry has fallen to just two states of influence, and even those are up for grabs: Texas and Oklahoma. Ron Paul is poised to take Iowa, but that's where his apparent momentum ceases. I plan to up date this as much as possible (I am limited to local polling) between now and the Iowa Caucuses.
No comments:
Post a Comment