Introducing the Congressional Voter Index

The Congressional Voter Index:

This index is a measure of the true balance of power on the hill reflected through victories and the mood of the electorate. May 15th may be an outlier, or it is an indicator that the Democrats seemed to have gotten some control in the debt ceiling debate. May fifteenth is also a turning point for the Democrats who were riding on Obama's coat tails after the raid on and killing of Osama bin Laden.

The Democrat's horrible handling of the debt negotiations lead to a massive loss for them during the summer, as well as a loss of the public's trust. However, this was not the end of the Democrats because they had another trick up their sleeves: the American Jobs Act.

Failing to act on a package, any package, that would produce jobs and failing to gain the lead on the messaging, the Republicans began to suffer and never regained their footing. The Democrats continue to control the messaging, but will this trend hold until November 2012?

Gingrich Cannot Win Virginia!

New GOPI Update!

Newt Gingrich fails to submit enough signatures to qualify for the Virginia Ballot; Romney will likely gain from this folly as Paul and Perry stabilize. The stabilization is good for Perry and bad for Paul.

GOPI Update!

The GOPI has been updated for 12/21/2011!

Rick Perry is on the verge of crashing and burning; his decline is directly benefiting Newt Gingrich in the more conservative states. Ron Paul, who has surpassed Rick Perry continues to climb as his momentum is seeping into South Dakota (Nielson Brothers). If Ron Paul takes Iowa, that may in fact not be the end of his run. Newt Gingrich continues to catch up to Mitt Romney and Romney is making that easier for Gingrch as he continues to slip.

Introducing the GOPI

The GOPI /GO-pE/

The GOPI is my attempt at graphically representing the GOP Presidential Primary at the national level. Unlike other attempts at assessing the mood of the Republican party towards the presidential candidates, which use a national poll, the GOPI uses a compilation of the latest polling data from the state level. During a primary, presidential candidates are not vetted and chosen nationally, they are chosen locally, in the individual states and territories. This is based on the polling and expectations of the candidates' performance in the various states. The GOPI only includes still active presidential hopefuls. This summer, I plan to introduce a presidential index.

The GOPI measures the candidates chances of getting their party's nod. The GOPI ranges from 0 to 1000 points. Mitt Romney, although faltering overall, is showing that slow and steady wins the race. Newt Gingrich, who is slipping in Iowa, is doing increasingly well in California, the northern Rockies, much of the South, and parts of the Rust Belt. Rick Perry has fallen to just two states of influence, and even those are up for grabs: Texas and Oklahoma. Ron Paul is poised to take Iowa, but that's where his apparent momentum ceases. I plan to up date this as much as possible (I am limited to local polling) between now and the Iowa Caucuses.