About Me

Lake Charles, Louisiana, United States
I am a left-leaning Independent and self-proclaimed political junkie who is most interested in LGBT and human rights. You'll definitely see this in my essays and posts.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

New Graphs!





1 Mitt Romney is still running away with the nomination race

2 President Obama is still very likely to win, which is why no Republican knight or dame will step forward during the convention; that's right, scratch contested convention off your list

3 Mitt Romney has slowed Rick Santorum's momentum

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Santorum Is Back



Santorum is back to the point at which he was at his height on the GOPI as Romney and Gingrich slip, but like Romney, he will have an uphill battle in November against President Obama if nominated!

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Charts!





My latest charts!

Take away:
1) Mitt Romney is the likely nominee; but not the likely 45th President
2) Rick Santorum is doing surprisingly well in Minnesota
3) Barack Obama is doing very well; riding on the wave of good economical news
4) Mitt Romney continues to dig his own grave with out-of-touch, I'm-better-than-you gaffes
5) This Republican nomination race is long from over

Same-Sex Marriage: Conservatives' Last Stand

The Losing Conservative Argument Against Marriage Equality

By John Winfield

We all know why same-sex marriage bans violate the United States Constitution. We know how the Destruction of Marriage Act violates the United States Constitution. Conservatives know this, as well, and that is why they are desperately searching for new reasoning to uphold the bans on marriage equality. Conservatives know that public opinion is shifting toward marriage equality, even among some Republicans and Christians, another reason for them to find new arguments against marriage equality.

[See my post: The Constitutional Argument for Same-Sex Marriage Equality]

The problem with their new arguments is that they are all based on the slippery slope fallacy. Example: if gays are allowed to marry members of their own gender, then humans will begin marrying animals, adults will be marrying children, polygamy would become rampant, people will start marrying burgers (Thomas Peters’, NOM, reaction to Jack In The Box Commercial), religious freedoms will be trampled, the heterosexual divorce rate will rise, and the Earth will split open, releasing the bowels of Hell upon us all.

There is also the argument that Christian conservatives simply do not want marriage to be redefined; they like to argue that marriage has been defined by God and the church, since the dawn of time, between one man and one woman for the purpose of procreation. The truth is that there is no such thing as traditional marriage. Marriage has always evolved to fit the needs, and wants, of society. Marriage has never been created by any god, goddess, or fairy princess; it was created by man, for man. Originally, marriage was about the transfer of property and wealth, procreation came long before marriage. If someone wants to argue against this, just remind them that God was not created until less than two-thousand years ago and the gods and goddesses who preceded God never frowned upon the occasional Greek or Roman same-sex marriage. The truth is marriage has been continually redefined, and more recently, it was redefined to allow divorce for petty means (think Henry VIII), when women became more independent and no longer had to marry for financial security, when white citizens were allowed to married non-white citizens, and when men were allowed to marry men and women allowed to marry women. Marriage evolves and is evolving, whether conservatives like this fact, or not.

By law, the actual description of a contract is a “meeting of the minds.” A meeting of the minds is needed to sign a legally binding contract; marriage is a contract. A meeting of the minds can only take place between two sentient adults. Because of the adult part of the rule, an adult cannot legally sign a marriage contract with a child. Humans are the only sentient species on Earth and in the United States, so, sorry animals, you cannot marry your masters. Only Thomas Peters from NOMblog.com would actually think marriage equality would lead to men marrying the bacon in their burgers; this shows the depth of their knowledge.

The polygamy argument is perhaps the toughest to fight against, which is why it is used so often by opponents to marriage equality, including Republican presidential candidate, a napkin is not a straw idiot, and bigot, Rick Santorum. Truthfully, this seems like a logical argument to make, at least until we look closely at the word “equality.” Equal treatment under the law is the reason gay couples are seeking marriage equality in the first place and it is this equal treatment mantra that will forbid legally recognized polygamy. The current tax system, healthcare system, and many other state benefits would be equally distributed among two-person marriages. When another person is added to the marriage, it then creates an unfair advantage specifically for that group. Finally; if polygamy is the problem, why go through the impossible task of trying to ban same-sex marriage equality when passing a constitutional ban on polygamy would meet much less resistance?

The only religious freedoms being trampled in this nation are non-Christian religions, agnosticism, and atheism. Every single day, we are bombarded by religious material, which, by a constitutional standard, should offend us! Same-sex marriage is not a threat to the Christian religion; logic is the Christians’ only threat. For every person in an opposite-sex marriage, marriage to you will still be between one man and one woman; we are not seeking to redefine marriage for you or to destroy your marriage, so why do that to us?

Friday, February 3, 2012

Electability Update for 3-Feb



Awaiting more polling out of the battleground states: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

GOPI, CVI, Electability Updates





The Gingrich attack machine seems to be having an effect on Romney nationally, but not in Florida. Unfortunately, the Gingrich attack machine seems to also be effecting the Republican Party brand as Democrats are starting to do much better, including President Obama.

Romney wants this race settled sooner (April) rather than later (Convention) and with very good reason. If this race continues with Newt Gingrich and the other Republican candidates cannibalizing each other, Obama will be unstoppable by November during the election that really counts, the general.

Friday, January 27, 2012

GOPI Update for 27-Jan



Nationally, the candidates seemed to have stagnated, but that's not the case. Florida and Minnesota have exchanged hands; with Romney now likely to win Florida and Gingrich polling very well in Minnesota.

Good news for Obama: His very popular populist speech at the SOTU seems to have resinated with the American people; his favorability has gone up with voters of all backgrounds. He is also doing better against all GOP candidates on a generic ballot and, for the first time since last summer, as good as the Generic GOP candidate.

Monday, January 23, 2012

GOPI Update for 23-Jan



Even with the large gap to close to catch up to Romney, Newt is back; but for this mercurial candidate, how long?

Obama is looking better against Romney; his lead against Gingrich is the same as before.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

GOPI Update for 19-Jan


With the field narrowing and the dwindling momentum of Santorum and Paul, the Mitternative, Newt Gingrich, is enjoying another surge in South Carolina which will likely carry into Florida.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

GOPI & Electability Charts Updated



As Romney continues to race toward his inevitable nomination, he is beginning to close the electability gap against Obama. The populous, negative attack ads are seeming to have the opposite desired affect on him; or it could just be the right-wing media coming to Romney's aid.

Monday, January 16, 2012

GOPI, CVI, and Electability Charts Updated!




Takeaways:
1 Huntsman is out and no one seems to notice
2 Romney continues to benefit from the large number of Republicans who realize he is their strongest candidate
3 Santorum may have met his peak
4 Newt Gingrich...

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

GOPI Updated


Takeaways:

1 Romney is going to be Barack Obama's opponent in November
2 Gingrich is finished; there is no way the former Speaker can recover
3 The Huntsmentum has ended, although one would wonder if it ever started
4 Ron Paul is continuing steady which, as Mitt Romney has shown, can be a good thing
5 Santorum needs to find a boost in more moderate states if he wants to continue passed February

Electability Still In Obama's Favor


Even with his historical back-to-back wins in the first-in-the nation caucus and primary, Mitt Romney, the strongest Republican candidate, is still weaker than President Obama. Remember, Mitt, Republicans may fall in line, Democrats may fall in love, but independents fall in lucidity.

Monday, January 9, 2012

GOPI Update


The Gingrich implosion continues as Santorum rises, Paul's protest candidacy continues, and Huntsman begins to erode Romney's lead.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Another GOPI Update!


Take-away:

1) Gingrich is imploding, even in the South
2) Romney is gaining in the South
3) Santorum is gaining faster than Romney in the South

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

GOPI and CVI Update!



Explaining the GOPI in five steps:
1. Romney's steady pace may actually pay off in the Iowa Caucuses
2. Paul has lost his Iowa momentum for many reasons, including his resurfaced anti-gay, racist newsletters
3. Santorum's surge may not be enough to take Iowa
4. Gingrich has lost steam, but only enough to stagnate his progress
5. Texas still has a love affair with their governor