Introducing the Congressional Voter Index

The Congressional Voter Index:

This index is a measure of the true balance of power on the hill reflected through victories and the mood of the electorate. May 15th may be an outlier, or it is an indicator that the Democrats seemed to have gotten some control in the debt ceiling debate. May fifteenth is also a turning point for the Democrats who were riding on Obama's coat tails after the raid on and killing of Osama bin Laden.

The Democrat's horrible handling of the debt negotiations lead to a massive loss for them during the summer, as well as a loss of the public's trust. However, this was not the end of the Democrats because they had another trick up their sleeves: the American Jobs Act.

Failing to act on a package, any package, that would produce jobs and failing to gain the lead on the messaging, the Republicans began to suffer and never regained their footing. The Democrats continue to control the messaging, but will this trend hold until November 2012?

Gingrich Cannot Win Virginia!

New GOPI Update!

Newt Gingrich fails to submit enough signatures to qualify for the Virginia Ballot; Romney will likely gain from this folly as Paul and Perry stabilize. The stabilization is good for Perry and bad for Paul.

GOPI Update!

The GOPI has been updated for 12/21/2011!

Rick Perry is on the verge of crashing and burning; his decline is directly benefiting Newt Gingrich in the more conservative states. Ron Paul, who has surpassed Rick Perry continues to climb as his momentum is seeping into South Dakota (Nielson Brothers). If Ron Paul takes Iowa, that may in fact not be the end of his run. Newt Gingrich continues to catch up to Mitt Romney and Romney is making that easier for Gingrch as he continues to slip.

Introducing the GOPI

The GOPI /GO-pE/

The GOPI is my attempt at graphically representing the GOP Presidential Primary at the national level. Unlike other attempts at assessing the mood of the Republican party towards the presidential candidates, which use a national poll, the GOPI uses a compilation of the latest polling data from the state level. During a primary, presidential candidates are not vetted and chosen nationally, they are chosen locally, in the individual states and territories. This is based on the polling and expectations of the candidates' performance in the various states. The GOPI only includes still active presidential hopefuls. This summer, I plan to introduce a presidential index.

The GOPI measures the candidates chances of getting their party's nod. The GOPI ranges from 0 to 1000 points. Mitt Romney, although faltering overall, is showing that slow and steady wins the race. Newt Gingrich, who is slipping in Iowa, is doing increasingly well in California, the northern Rockies, much of the South, and parts of the Rust Belt. Rick Perry has fallen to just two states of influence, and even those are up for grabs: Texas and Oklahoma. Ron Paul is poised to take Iowa, but that's where his apparent momentum ceases. I plan to up date this as much as possible (I am limited to local polling) between now and the Iowa Caucuses.

2012 Map, thus far!

Obama - 286 | Romney - 185 | Toss Up - 67

2012 Map, thus far!

[img]http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=0&ev_p=1&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=2;11;6&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;9&FL=0;29;5&GA=2;16;6&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;8&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;6&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=0;10;5&MT=2;3;6&NV=1;6;5&NH=2;4;5&NJ=1;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=0;15;5&ND=2;3;6&OH=1;18;5&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;20;5&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;7&UT=2;6;9&VT=1;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;8&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;9[/img]

I Expect Obama to Win in 2012...If the Vote Happened Today

Northeast
Obama - CT, DE, MA, MD, ME (AL, 1, 2), NY, PA, VT
Romney - NH (Yes; I do expect Romney to carry New Hampshire)

The South
Obama - DC, MD
Romney - AL, AR, GA, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, TX, WV
Toss Ups - FL, MO, NC, VA

Midwest
Obama - IA, IL, MI, MN, OH, WI
Romney - IN, KS, ND, NE (AL, 1, 2, 3), SD

The West
Obama - CA, CO, HI, NM, NV, OR, WA
Romney - AK, AZ, ID, MT, UT, WY

That's 286 electoral points for Obama and 185 for Romney if you weren't keeping track.  It's interesting to note that the South is still somewhat sold on Obama.  Obama will carry the state of Maryland and the District of Columbia and all of the toss up states are in the South.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: My Prediction thus far!

My Platform

Instead of writing this out, I'll just provide a chart of my platform if I were running for president.  What would you change?  Would you add anything?  Comments are more than welcome!

Category	Items	Federal	State	Private	Total
Infrastructure	Aviation Bridges Dams Drinking Water Energy Hazardous Waste Inland Waterways Levees Public Parks & Recreation Rail Roads Schools Solid Waste Transit Wastewater Cover 90% at federal level, 7% at state level and 3% from private funding	$ 1,980B	$ 154B	$ 66B	$ 2,200B
Student Loans	Forgive federal student loans	$ 830B			$ 830B
R & D	Increase subsidies for research and development for universities, medical research, non-profits, and for-profit commercial businesses making less than $ 1 M per year.	Increase Deficit
Trade	Eliminate taxes on exports	Increase
Welfare	Continue unemployment insurance Fund job training programs	Increase
Bush Tax Cuts	Eliminate Bush tax cuts for incomes of $ 250 K+ Phase out Bush tax cuts for incomes of $ 175 K + over next three years Phase out Bush tax cuts for incomes of $100 K + over next six years Phase out remaining Bush tax cuts for incomes under $100 K over next ten years	-$1,400B			-$1,400B
Corporations	Close tax loopholes and simplify the tax code Reduce corporate tax rate Subsidize corporations who operate completely in America Eliminate subsidies to oil and gas Eliminate tax cuts for corporate jets Print more money Tax corporate savings Institute a tax penalty on American-based companies who sell foreign built products in America	Decrease
USPS	Eliminate regulations that drain the postal service of funds	Increase
Defense	Cut spending by 30% as suggested by Robert Gates	-$ .800B			-$ .800B
Social Security	Social Security is actually in the least amount of danger when compared to the rest of the social safety net Do not change Social Security for people age 40 and up Ages 30 - 39:  Raise retirement age by two years Below age 30:  Raise retirement age by four years Reduce amount of benefits based on earnings and retirement Increase FICA deduction but cut the amount employers have to match (55 employees/45 employers for companies making less than $ 1 M; no change for companies making higher than $ 1 M) Eliminate income tax cap on Social Security payroll tax without burdening employers				-$ 0.0B
Medicare	Lower eligibility age by fifteen years every three years to include a healthier population Require higher copayments for wealthy seniors Eliminate Medicare Advantage plans Do not repeal the ACA Negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies (Act of Congress)
Wages	Increase minimum wage to $ 10 per hour				-$ 0.0B
Sales Tax	Ban the use of national sales taxes and internet sales taxes				-$ 0.0B
Main Street	Bail out Main Street by forgiving underwater mortgages Rescind the stimulus given to big banks who withhold lending Limit debit card fees Match interest on college or trade school savings accounts Continue payroll tax holiday for middle and lower class	Increase
Education	Eliminate national testing Eliminate attendance discouragements by outlawing bullying with a clear and defined comprehensive non-biased anti-bullying program that includes training for instructors, principals, and students Expand broadband to rural areas	Increase
Laws & Elections	Stop defending DOMA with taxpayer funds by repealing it Legalize same-sex marriage across the nation Pass the DREAM Act Pass ENDA Eliminate the debt ceiling Limit influence of Super PAC's in elections & investigate voter suppression Institute a non-partisan fact checking organization to fact check claims made by legislators and the executive Balance the Supreme Court by appointing one more Liberal justice and a true independent justice (there is no limit to the number of justices on the bench) Pass fair pay legislation Require companies consider American citizens for any job before workers in nation on a work Visa Expedite citizenship for foreign students here on a Student Visa after graduation				-$ 0.0B
Tax the Rich	Tax capital gains as if it were regular income	Decrease
Discretionary	Reduce DOD spending (-71.5 B) Reduce War on Terror Spending (-26.3 B) Increase spending on VA (+12.3 B) Increase disaster spending bank (+14.0 B)	-$ 71.5B			-$ 71.5B
The Dollar	Use interest rates for borrowing and lending to stabilize the domestic economy and strengthen the dollar				-$ 0.0B

The Progressive Contract

As the campaign seasons heat up, you will hear more and more Republicans signing contracts and pledges.  Republican's have already pledged to take welfare from teen mothers (Republican Contract With America); destroy our healthcare system, kill Social Security, kill Medicare, continue the Ponzi scheme of feeding the coffers of the wealthy with the wages of the poor, deregulate Wall Street, bring education back to the time of segregation and high drop outs, dismantle earnest efforts for energy independence, destroy the environment, limit our right to vote (Tea Party Contract); ensure the poor and middle-class shoulder the burden in an effort to stabilize the economy, make abortion services almost unobtainable, eliminate due process, erase any hope that children of illegal immigrants who call themselves Americans from becoming legal Americans (GOP.gov Pledge); respect the marriages of others unless they're a same-sex couple, believe that same-sex couples make horrible parents, sex partners, and are likely to be involved in legal troubles and addiction, eliminate welfare for single parents, defend the unconstitutional DOMA [Destruction of Marriage Act], fight to enshrine bigotry within the United States Constitution, reinstatement of DADT, abolish abortion, put girls under lock and key until marriage, ban pornography [damn the First Amendment!], reject Sharia Law [doesn't the First Amendment and Article IV of the Constitution already do that?] (Bob Vander Plaats Pledge for 2012ers); again, enshrine social inequalities and bigotry into our constitution, appoint activist judges [but they support conservatives, so they're not really activists], institute McCarthyist witch hunts into supporters of same-sex marriage and gay persons, eliminate due process in the District of Columbia (NOM Pledge).

All that ruining of America is a lot to take in, I know; for these reasons alone, we as progressives must not become short sided of our goals.  I just saw a new progressive contract that was emailed to me; I'll not name the organization, but I found this alarming.  Why change something we already have, something that is already tried, true, and more importantly, trusted.  We as progressives have followed one pledge, and one pledge alone.  It is the Progressive Contract which I derived from FDR's October 31, 1936 campaign speech we know as, "I Welcome Their Hatred!"  In that speech, he laid the pillars and foundation for what would become the cornerstones of the modern progressive and democratic movement.  This contract is still in use today and should remain in use for as long as the American progressive movement shall live.  This is the first pledge, the first contract, and the only contract that stands by the everyday American.  This is who we are, not only as progressives, but as a nation.

Below, are the enumerated promises made by FDR to the American people; below is the true progressive pledge to America.

The Progressive Contract
By Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Our vision for the future contains more than promises.
1. Improve working conditions for the workers of America
1. Reduce hours over-long
2. Increase wages that spell starvation
3. End the labor of children
4. Wipe out sweatshops
5. End monopoly in business
6. Support collective bargaining
7. Stop unfair competition
8. Abolish dishonorable trade policies
2. Cheaper electricity in the homes and on the farms of America
3. Better and cheaper transportation
4. Low interest rates
5. Sounder home financing
6. Better banking
7. Regulation of security issues
8. Reciprocal trade among nations
9. The wiping out of slums
10. Better land use and reforestation
11. Conservation of water all the way from its source to the sea
12. Drought and flood control
13. Provide useful work for the needy unemployed
1. Refuse to accept the disparagement of the unemployed
2. Keep government on the side of the Good Samaritan
3. Continue insurance for the unemployed
4. We prefer useful work to the pauperism of a dole
14. Continue our efforts for young men and women so that they may obtain an education and opportunity to put to use
15. Help for the crippled, for the blind, for the mothers
16. Provide security for the aged
17. Protect the consumer against unnecessary price spreads
1. Protect against the costs that are added by monopoly and speculation
2. Continue our efforts to increase the consumer purchasing power and keep it constant
For all these, we must continue to fight!

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

My Projections:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 43%

Likely Electoral Points: 236

Rick Perry* (R) [Governor - Texas]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 233

The swing states have been narrowed to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, holding a total of 69 points.  Obama will likely take PA and NH, and Perry will likely take NC and OH, leaving Iowa and Nevada up for grabs.  Obama would have to win both Iowa and Nevada to win the election if this event happens.  The state to watch in this election is Iowa.  We are still to close to call!

Here is a link to my 2012 prediction map:   http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bXx

Feel free to make your predictions and share!

*I predict Rick Perry, the Teavangelical front runner, will likely win the necessary 1212 delegates required to win the Republican nod over establishment front runner, Mitt Romney.

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

Here are my predictions:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

Gallup: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 174

M Romney (R) [Fm. Governor - Massachusetts]

Gallup: 39%

Likely Electoral Points: 181

With the swing states of CO, FL, ME (1)*, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, OH, OR, PA, and VA holding 183 electoral points, this prediction is still too close to call.

*Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all states; I estimate all 5 delegates from Nebraska will lean GOP.  3 Maine delegates will likely lean Democrat, leaving 1 Main delegate as a swing vote.

This has been updated to reflect Mitt Romney's likely win over Rick Perry.  I expect Mitt Romney to take at least three-fifths of the delegates to the Republican National Convention.

No Deal: My Letter to the President

Dear Barack Obama,

No deal, Mister President!  No, I’m not talking about your capitulation on our nation’s solvent social safety net, I’m talking about any deal to trim the deficit whatsoever in conjunction with this debt ceiling vote.  I, and more than likely, the majority of the American people, want to see this debt ceiling vote come to a head with no political bipartisanship affecting its outcome.

The American debt ceiling is not a tool to use as a weapon against the heads of the American people and the economy, nor is it negotiable, raising it to pay our debts and keep the government functioning is constitutionally mandated; you, Mister President and constitutional scholar, should already know this.  If you offer any type of deal, be it good or bad, even from a progressive stand-point, this will open the Pandora’s Box for what can be leveraged with the debt ceiling vote, so offer no deal!

Offer no deal and use your constitutional and executive authority to raise the debt ceiling yourself with the aid of the Treasury Department; our economy is at stake, America is at stake, Americans are at stake, do not throw any of these things or people under the bus with meaningless political theater.  Allowing any deal undermines the authority of the executive and sets a precedent for others who will follow this Congress to use the debt ceiling as leverage against a sitting president.  I and the American people understand the deficit needs to be tamed, however, I must urge you that doing so with the Full, Faith, and Credit of the United States and the economies of other nations which rely on our economy to keep the markets stable and fair with proper competition literally at gun point would be the destruction of any recovery made thus far since the end of the Great Recession.

Sincerely,

A Concerned American Citizen

Opposing Same-Sex Marriage is un-American

The Constitutional Argument for Same-Sex Marriage Equality

Banning marriage equality for same-sex couples is and will likely always be unconstitutional in the United States.  State statutes and constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage violate the first, fifth, and fourteenth amendments.  The first amendment promises the right to freedom of speech, same-sex marriage bans curtail that right.  The fifth amendment states, "No person shall be...deprived of life, liberty...without due process of law[...]"; allowing a public vote on banning same-sex marriage is a violation of the due process clause of those people adversely affected by the law that deprives those people of life and liberty.

The fourteenth amendment is the most obviously violated of them all when marriage equality is denied to same-sex couples.  The fourteenth amendment is broken up into four parts, or sections, less the enforcement section.  Bans on same-sex marriage easily violate the first section of the fourteenth amendment, which states, "No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws."  In this amendment, the due process clause is viewed as so important to the fabric of the United States and for the protection of its citizens, the clause is reiterated.

As for the actual body of the constitution, the so-called "'Defense' of Marriage Act" (DOMA) is a major violation of Article Four.  Article Four states, "Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the public Acts, Records, and judicial Proceedings of every other State. And the Congress may by general Laws prescribe the Manner in which such Acts, Records and Proceedings shall be proved, and the Effect thereof" and "The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States".  DOMA gives permission to the states to ignore these clauses completely in the case of same-sex marriage.

I am gay and therefore will always support marriage equality for same-sex couples, but as a supporter of the United States constitution and as an American, even if I was personally against this, I would still feel compelled to support marriage equality for same-sex couples on the basis of the law.  I do believe it would be un-American to take action contrary to the support of marriage equality for same-sex couples.

#GOP Field Much Worse Than Before!

After watching the first two Republican Debates, the first one being on Fox and the second on CNN, I have noticed just how blatant these candidates are being when waging divisive culture wars and trying to out-"right" (far out-"right") their other opponents.  When I was first able to vote, being the math-minded, logical person that I am, I created a point-system to rate the candidates depending on their answers to certain questions during the debate.  The point-system has been extremely reliable in picking a candidate who was more in line with progressive values throughout the nation.  Picking a president is not about his charisma and how well he or she can spin a topic into his or her favor.

A candidate can either gain or lose the points depending on the topics in which he or she answers listed herein:

Civil Rights = 600 points

Workers Rights = 500

Gay Rights = 1000

Economy = 300

Corporations = 500

Iraq = 200

Afghanistan = 300

Pakistan = 200

Libya = 200

Israel = 300

Healthcare = 400

Medicare = 400

Social Security = 400

Defense Spending = 300

Fair Tax = 200

Middle Class Rights = 400

Immigration = 200

Gun Laws = 100

Middle East Protests = 200

Abortion Rights = 600

Stem Cell (Embryonic) Research = 200

Education = 300

Energy = 300

Environment = 400

Drug Laws = 200

Tea Party = 300

Space & Technology = 200

Role of the Federal Government = 300

Debt Ceiling = 400

National Security = 300

Lying = Automatic 100 point deduction

Miss a Debate = Automatic 1000 point deduction

After watching two debates, here is where the GOP candidates stand:

Republican	Debates
M Bachmann	-6100
H Cain	-5300
N Gingrich	-4600
G Johnson	-1500
R Paul	-400
T Pawlenty	-5000
M Romney	-4700
R Santorum	-4800

Currently, Ron Paul is in the lead with negative 400 points; I must say, this is pretty sad.  The gay rights, Medicare, workers rights, healthcare, social security, debt ceiling, role of the federal government, and abortion issues killed all of these candidates.  They are just too far right, for my tastes, and I imagine mainstream Republicans.

The Afterlife, or Something Like it

Last weekend, I experienced a special occurrence that has only happened a handful of times within my life and has already affected me profoundly.  This weekend, I realized that I believe in the existence of some sort of afterlife.  To be exact:  I realized that the existence of an afterlife is logically possible.  You probably do not know this, but I am agnostic, that is I believe in a higher force of some sort, but have not acknowledged the identity of that force.  Now, I believe in an afterlife, sort of.

Up until my junior year of college, I was atheist, only believing in what is tangible.  What changed that is throughout my courses in civil engineering, math, physics, environmental science, chemistry, and sociology, I began to notice patterns that linked all natural aspects of those sciences to each other:  the natural logarithm.  At that moment, one of the special occurrences aforementioned happened:  I had the realization that without the existence of a higher force, this natural pattern could not exist and our multi-verse could fall into entropy.

This weekend, I was thinking about the Big Bang Theory and an article where Stephen Hawkins said because of the existence of gravity, spontaneously, universes could come into existence.  I started thinking more about this, now armed with what I had learned in math about gravity and the space-time continuum.  On the surface, it would seem that without the existence of large, massive objects, gravity could not exist.  Gravity not only warps the fabric of space-time, but it exists because space-time exists and space-time exists because gravity exists, therefore, space-time and gravity will always exist.

This is where my idea of the afterlife comes into play.  I have come to believe the afterlife exists along the fabric of space-time.  I still do not know what effect, if any, gravity plays in this vision of the afterlife. One idea is it may force, through trans-universal wormholes, our sentience to enter another universe and another life, or our sentience may just become one with the fabric of space-time forever, this, I still do not understand.  I am sure, in time, I will come to understand whether death is the end of the line for our sentience or if reincarnation actually is the next chapter, or this may be the end of that line of thought due to the lack of evidence.  I also know that I will likely never acknowledge the identity of the higher force I have come to believe exists.

More REPUBLICAN LIES

The GOP ran on a campaign touting jobs-creation, smaller government, and working harder for the American people! The first things they do when they get into office: waste time and tax-payer money in a futile attempt to repeal the job-creating, life-improving, deficit-reducing Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), attack women's reproductive rights by trying to redefine rape and incest, destroy families and attack marriages with so-called "marriage protection" amendments, and try to slow the implementation of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal, which would prevent the destruction of important military careers (jobs) and stop the waste of tax-payer money. Those of you who voted Republican last year, you've been had; thanks for voting to ruin America!

Keith Olbermann Signs Off

This past Friday was a very sad day in honest journalism as we have learned very abruptly that Keith Olbermann was signing off even though he had two years left in his contract.  In a time where we need more in-depth honesty in the news, not less, we have lost a powerful light in an age that seems to be getting darker and darker.  Olbermann will be missed and so will, MSNBC’s “well-oiled Ferrari,” Countdown.

I have no doubt Keith’s sudden departure had something to do with the inevitable take-over, not merger, of NBC/MSNBC by the conservative media giant, Comcast.  It would seem that we liberals are being silenced not only within our own government, at times by our very own Democratic president, but in the media as well.  Were it not for Olbermann, MSNBC would not be the left-leaning, liberal media outlet it is today, and for that, among many other reasons, we must thank him.  Olbermann has given liberals a voice on the cable news medium that was needed sorely during the almost tyrannical Bush administration, the moral emptiness of the Republicans’ rise to near power within our Congress, and now during the tea party, gun-wielding, Congresswoman shooting insanity that is gripping America.

We can only hope MSNBC will continue to be the voice against that tyranny, moral emptiness, and insanity; however, most importantly, we can only hope MSNBC will continue to be a beacon of truth in what is becoming, in part due to Conservative media, America’s Dark Age.  Please excuse me if you think I am sounding a little melodramatic, but this nation is overwhelmed by news organizations giving a platform to groups who promote hate and a culture of fear against the government and liberals, CNN not withstanding!

My final message to Comcast and conservatives:  I will gladly take the biased liberal media at MSNBC over the lies spread by Fox News.  Lastly, to Keith Olbermann:  good luck in your future endeavors; I hope this is not the last we will hear from you because you are already extremely missed in an age when we need your voice more than ever before.