2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: My Prediction thus far!

My Platform

Instead of writing this out, I'll just provide a chart of my platform if I were running for president.  What would you change?  Would you add anything?  Comments are more than welcome!

Category	Items	Federal	State	Private	Total
Infrastructure	Aviation Bridges Dams Drinking Water Energy Hazardous Waste Inland Waterways Levees Public Parks & Recreation Rail Roads Schools Solid Waste Transit Wastewater Cover 90% at federal level, 7% at state level and 3% from private funding	$ 1,980B	$ 154B	$ 66B	$ 2,200B
Student Loans	Forgive federal student loans	$ 830B			$ 830B
R & D	Increase subsidies for research and development for universities, medical research, non-profits, and for-profit commercial businesses making less than $ 1 M per year.	Increase Deficit
Trade	Eliminate taxes on exports	Increase
Welfare	Continue unemployment insurance Fund job training programs	Increase
Bush Tax Cuts	Eliminate Bush tax cuts for incomes of $ 250 K+ Phase out Bush tax cuts for incomes of $ 175 K + over next three years Phase out Bush tax cuts for incomes of $100 K + over next six years Phase out remaining Bush tax cuts for incomes under $100 K over next ten years	-$1,400B			-$1,400B
Corporations	Close tax loopholes and simplify the tax code Reduce corporate tax rate Subsidize corporations who operate completely in America Eliminate subsidies to oil and gas Eliminate tax cuts for corporate jets Print more money Tax corporate savings Institute a tax penalty on American-based companies who sell foreign built products in America	Decrease
USPS	Eliminate regulations that drain the postal service of funds	Increase
Defense	Cut spending by 30% as suggested by Robert Gates	-$ .800B			-$ .800B
Social Security	Social Security is actually in the least amount of danger when compared to the rest of the social safety net Do not change Social Security for people age 40 and up Ages 30 - 39:  Raise retirement age by two years Below age 30:  Raise retirement age by four years Reduce amount of benefits based on earnings and retirement Increase FICA deduction but cut the amount employers have to match (55 employees/45 employers for companies making less than $ 1 M; no change for companies making higher than $ 1 M) Eliminate income tax cap on Social Security payroll tax without burdening employers				-$ 0.0B
Medicare	Lower eligibility age by fifteen years every three years to include a healthier population Require higher copayments for wealthy seniors Eliminate Medicare Advantage plans Do not repeal the ACA Negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies (Act of Congress)
Wages	Increase minimum wage to $ 10 per hour				-$ 0.0B
Sales Tax	Ban the use of national sales taxes and internet sales taxes				-$ 0.0B
Main Street	Bail out Main Street by forgiving underwater mortgages Rescind the stimulus given to big banks who withhold lending Limit debit card fees Match interest on college or trade school savings accounts Continue payroll tax holiday for middle and lower class	Increase
Education	Eliminate national testing Eliminate attendance discouragements by outlawing bullying with a clear and defined comprehensive non-biased anti-bullying program that includes training for instructors, principals, and students Expand broadband to rural areas	Increase
Laws & Elections	Stop defending DOMA with taxpayer funds by repealing it Legalize same-sex marriage across the nation Pass the DREAM Act Pass ENDA Eliminate the debt ceiling Limit influence of Super PAC's in elections & investigate voter suppression Institute a non-partisan fact checking organization to fact check claims made by legislators and the executive Balance the Supreme Court by appointing one more Liberal justice and a true independent justice (there is no limit to the number of justices on the bench) Pass fair pay legislation Require companies consider American citizens for any job before workers in nation on a work Visa Expedite citizenship for foreign students here on a Student Visa after graduation				-$ 0.0B
Tax the Rich	Tax capital gains as if it were regular income	Decrease
Discretionary	Reduce DOD spending (-71.5 B) Reduce War on Terror Spending (-26.3 B) Increase spending on VA (+12.3 B) Increase disaster spending bank (+14.0 B)	-$ 71.5B			-$ 71.5B
The Dollar	Use interest rates for borrowing and lending to stabilize the domestic economy and strengthen the dollar				-$ 0.0B

The Progressive Contract

As the campaign seasons heat up, you will hear more and more Republicans signing contracts and pledges.  Republican's have already pledged to take welfare from teen mothers (Republican Contract With America); destroy our healthcare system, kill Social Security, kill Medicare, continue the Ponzi scheme of feeding the coffers of the wealthy with the wages of the poor, deregulate Wall Street, bring education back to the time of segregation and high drop outs, dismantle earnest efforts for energy independence, destroy the environment, limit our right to vote (Tea Party Contract); ensure the poor and middle-class shoulder the burden in an effort to stabilize the economy, make abortion services almost unobtainable, eliminate due process, erase any hope that children of illegal immigrants who call themselves Americans from becoming legal Americans (GOP.gov Pledge); respect the marriages of others unless they're a same-sex couple, believe that same-sex couples make horrible parents, sex partners, and are likely to be involved in legal troubles and addiction, eliminate welfare for single parents, defend the unconstitutional DOMA [Destruction of Marriage Act], fight to enshrine bigotry within the United States Constitution, reinstatement of DADT, abolish abortion, put girls under lock and key until marriage, ban pornography [damn the First Amendment!], reject Sharia Law [doesn't the First Amendment and Article IV of the Constitution already do that?] (Bob Vander Plaats Pledge for 2012ers); again, enshrine social inequalities and bigotry into our constitution, appoint activist judges [but they support conservatives, so they're not really activists], institute McCarthyist witch hunts into supporters of same-sex marriage and gay persons, eliminate due process in the District of Columbia (NOM Pledge).

All that ruining of America is a lot to take in, I know; for these reasons alone, we as progressives must not become short sided of our goals.  I just saw a new progressive contract that was emailed to me; I'll not name the organization, but I found this alarming.  Why change something we already have, something that is already tried, true, and more importantly, trusted.  We as progressives have followed one pledge, and one pledge alone.  It is the Progressive Contract which I derived from FDR's October 31, 1936 campaign speech we know as, "I Welcome Their Hatred!"  In that speech, he laid the pillars and foundation for what would become the cornerstones of the modern progressive and democratic movement.  This contract is still in use today and should remain in use for as long as the American progressive movement shall live.  This is the first pledge, the first contract, and the only contract that stands by the everyday American.  This is who we are, not only as progressives, but as a nation.

Below, are the enumerated promises made by FDR to the American people; below is the true progressive pledge to America.

The Progressive Contract
By Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Our vision for the future contains more than promises.
1. Improve working conditions for the workers of America
1. Reduce hours over-long
2. Increase wages that spell starvation
3. End the labor of children
4. Wipe out sweatshops
5. End monopoly in business
6. Support collective bargaining
7. Stop unfair competition
8. Abolish dishonorable trade policies
2. Cheaper electricity in the homes and on the farms of America
3. Better and cheaper transportation
4. Low interest rates
5. Sounder home financing
6. Better banking
7. Regulation of security issues
8. Reciprocal trade among nations
9. The wiping out of slums
10. Better land use and reforestation
11. Conservation of water all the way from its source to the sea
12. Drought and flood control
13. Provide useful work for the needy unemployed
1. Refuse to accept the disparagement of the unemployed
2. Keep government on the side of the Good Samaritan
3. Continue insurance for the unemployed
4. We prefer useful work to the pauperism of a dole
14. Continue our efforts for young men and women so that they may obtain an education and opportunity to put to use
15. Help for the crippled, for the blind, for the mothers
16. Provide security for the aged
17. Protect the consumer against unnecessary price spreads
1. Protect against the costs that are added by monopoly and speculation
2. Continue our efforts to increase the consumer purchasing power and keep it constant
For all these, we must continue to fight!

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

My Projections:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 43%

Likely Electoral Points: 236

Rick Perry* (R) [Governor - Texas]

RCP Poll-of-Polls: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 233

The swing states have been narrowed to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, holding a total of 69 points.  Obama will likely take PA and NH, and Perry will likely take NC and OH, leaving Iowa and Nevada up for grabs.  Obama would have to win both Iowa and Nevada to win the election if this event happens.  The state to watch in this election is Iowa.  We are still to close to call!

Here is a link to my 2012 prediction map:   http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bXx

Feel free to make your predictions and share!

*I predict Rick Perry, the Teavangelical front runner, will likely win the necessary 1212 delegates required to win the Republican nod over establishment front runner, Mitt Romney.

If The Presidential Election Was Today...

Here are my predictions:

Barack Obama (D) [Incumbent]

Gallup: 45%

Likely Electoral Points: 174

M Romney (R) [Fm. Governor - Massachusetts]

Gallup: 39%

Likely Electoral Points: 181

With the swing states of CO, FL, ME (1)*, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, OH, OR, PA, and VA holding 183 electoral points, this prediction is still too close to call.

*Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all states; I estimate all 5 delegates from Nebraska will lean GOP.  3 Maine delegates will likely lean Democrat, leaving 1 Main delegate as a swing vote.

This has been updated to reflect Mitt Romney's likely win over Rick Perry.  I expect Mitt Romney to take at least three-fifths of the delegates to the Republican National Convention.

No Deal: My Letter to the President

Dear Barack Obama,

No deal, Mister President!  No, I’m not talking about your capitulation on our nation’s solvent social safety net, I’m talking about any deal to trim the deficit whatsoever in conjunction with this debt ceiling vote.  I, and more than likely, the majority of the American people, want to see this debt ceiling vote come to a head with no political bipartisanship affecting its outcome.

The American debt ceiling is not a tool to use as a weapon against the heads of the American people and the economy, nor is it negotiable, raising it to pay our debts and keep the government functioning is constitutionally mandated; you, Mister President and constitutional scholar, should already know this.  If you offer any type of deal, be it good or bad, even from a progressive stand-point, this will open the Pandora’s Box for what can be leveraged with the debt ceiling vote, so offer no deal!

Offer no deal and use your constitutional and executive authority to raise the debt ceiling yourself with the aid of the Treasury Department; our economy is at stake, America is at stake, Americans are at stake, do not throw any of these things or people under the bus with meaningless political theater.  Allowing any deal undermines the authority of the executive and sets a precedent for others who will follow this Congress to use the debt ceiling as leverage against a sitting president.  I and the American people understand the deficit needs to be tamed, however, I must urge you that doing so with the Full, Faith, and Credit of the United States and the economies of other nations which rely on our economy to keep the markets stable and fair with proper competition literally at gun point would be the destruction of any recovery made thus far since the end of the Great Recession.

Sincerely,

A Concerned American Citizen

Opposing Same-Sex Marriage is un-American

The Constitutional Argument for Same-Sex Marriage Equality

Banning marriage equality for same-sex couples is and will likely always be unconstitutional in the United States.  State statutes and constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage violate the first, fifth, and fourteenth amendments.  The first amendment promises the right to freedom of speech, same-sex marriage bans curtail that right.  The fifth amendment states, "No person shall be...deprived of life, liberty...without due process of law[...]"; allowing a public vote on banning same-sex marriage is a violation of the due process clause of those people adversely affected by the law that deprives those people of life and liberty.

The fourteenth amendment is the most obviously violated of them all when marriage equality is denied to same-sex couples.  The fourteenth amendment is broken up into four parts, or sections, less the enforcement section.  Bans on same-sex marriage easily violate the first section of the fourteenth amendment, which states, "No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws."  In this amendment, the due process clause is viewed as so important to the fabric of the United States and for the protection of its citizens, the clause is reiterated.

As for the actual body of the constitution, the so-called "'Defense' of Marriage Act" (DOMA) is a major violation of Article Four.  Article Four states, "Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the public Acts, Records, and judicial Proceedings of every other State. And the Congress may by general Laws prescribe the Manner in which such Acts, Records and Proceedings shall be proved, and the Effect thereof" and "The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States".  DOMA gives permission to the states to ignore these clauses completely in the case of same-sex marriage.

I am gay and therefore will always support marriage equality for same-sex couples, but as a supporter of the United States constitution and as an American, even if I was personally against this, I would still feel compelled to support marriage equality for same-sex couples on the basis of the law.  I do believe it would be un-American to take action contrary to the support of marriage equality for same-sex couples.